BTC could do another boring period like in 2019
So many bitcoin analysts find themselves surprised at what BTC is doing.
Apparently the old fractals from 2013 and 2017 aren't working any more, and now even the Wyckoff accumulation pattern seems to be failing us. What the hell BTC???
Well what if BTC changed its behavior at some point, I assume it must have been in 2018. The 2018 low was already very very bizzarre. Back then, there was no shakeout low, just a weird and long drawn out grind at 3-4k, no bounce, nothing,
and then it started rising ever so faster to 14k by June 2019.
And then after that top, the same weird behavior. I assume that institutions changed the behavior of BTC, and as long as the retail investor is not dominating BTC any more, we also will not see the old patterns any more.
And looking at this metric here: www.blockchain....cluding-popular?timespan=2...
daily transactions are really really low. This means that retail investors almost don't play any role any more, as apparently BTC is still not in more usage than it was in early 2018. Adoption is really not as fast as we thought.
As compared to PlanB's stock to flow model, which by the way I think is oversimplified and thus wrong, for me the fundamental price driver of BTC is ADOPTION. Without adoption, no price increase. PlanB says that only scarcity determines BTC price
evolution, but completely neglects the demand side. Also, the model delivers far too high price values for BTC, such as 400 billion USD per BTC by 2045, lol, which is obviously wrong. So I think the longterm SQRT trend channel in the logarithmic chart is the correct one.
Here we have much more realistic values, and it takes into account the law of diminishing returns, and also that BTC is growing ever more slowly. Adoption is not as fast as we would like.
So this means, that BTC could bore us to death now for over a year. We all don't want to hear it, but that's BTC's new behavior apparently. Big drops, and then? No bounce, nothing, just long sideways. If the pattern from June 2019 onwards would repeat, then we could
face something like I've drawn here. I also included the curved trend channel and the weekly MA200, as only that one provided historical support. So we could see BTC dip even below 20k shortly in a spike, depending on where the MA200 will be during that time. Currently
it stands at 13.5k, ouch. Better not drop now :)
Anyways, for the longterm future, nothing changed. Prices of 100k+ are a certainty, but BTC is just not as fast as we would like, and also the old rules don't apply any more.
Apparently the old fractals from 2013 and 2017 aren't working any more, and now even the Wyckoff accumulation pattern seems to be failing us. What the hell BTC???
Well what if BTC changed its behavior at some point, I assume it must have been in 2018. The 2018 low was already very very bizzarre. Back then, there was no shakeout low, just a weird and long drawn out grind at 3-4k, no bounce, nothing,
and then it started rising ever so faster to 14k by June 2019.
And then after that top, the same weird behavior. I assume that institutions changed the behavior of BTC, and as long as the retail investor is not dominating BTC any more, we also will not see the old patterns any more.
And looking at this metric here: www.blockchain....cluding-popular?timespan=2...
daily transactions are really really low. This means that retail investors almost don't play any role any more, as apparently BTC is still not in more usage than it was in early 2018. Adoption is really not as fast as we thought.
As compared to PlanB's stock to flow model, which by the way I think is oversimplified and thus wrong, for me the fundamental price driver of BTC is ADOPTION. Without adoption, no price increase. PlanB says that only scarcity determines BTC price
evolution, but completely neglects the demand side. Also, the model delivers far too high price values for BTC, such as 400 billion USD per BTC by 2045, lol, which is obviously wrong. So I think the longterm SQRT trend channel in the logarithmic chart is the correct one.
Here we have much more realistic values, and it takes into account the law of diminishing returns, and also that BTC is growing ever more slowly. Adoption is not as fast as we would like.
So this means, that BTC could bore us to death now for over a year. We all don't want to hear it, but that's BTC's new behavior apparently. Big drops, and then? No bounce, nothing, just long sideways. If the pattern from June 2019 onwards would repeat, then we could
face something like I've drawn here. I also included the curved trend channel and the weekly MA200, as only that one provided historical support. So we could see BTC dip even below 20k shortly in a spike, depending on where the MA200 will be during that time. Currently
it stands at 13.5k, ouch. Better not drop now :)
Anyways, for the longterm future, nothing changed. Prices of 100k+ are a certainty, but BTC is just not as fast as we would like, and also the old rules don't apply any more.
It's hard to say, what BTC will prefer to do right now. We are in completely uncharted territory behavior-wise. We can just say that the probability for a bounce to the upside rises with ever stronger bullish divergences in the 3d and 1w RSI, and very very oversold weekly stoch RSI.