When everybody is thinking the same way. You should examine the other side!
The current move we have on BTC, unfortunately makes me rather bearish than bullish. What's going on right now is NOT a sign of a healthy, good performing market.
1. A healthy rally would be if it had retracements and a clear trend. Why a trend? Because that would actually tell you that the market is holding strong, has fundamentals, new money is comming in and the pump is not ONLY manipulated.
2. The way BTC is going upwards is totally not healthy. A parabolic move should occur after the highs were broken (20k), as there are no resistances anymore so that the price can get pumped easily. That's my opinion of how a market should logically work.
3. A parabolic move under the highs where you got tons of resistances and all of those get broken totally waves a lot of red flags. Parabolic moves always started after the break of last bull-market highs as you can see on the chart. And its perfectly logical to occur so (Because there are no resistances afterall).
""" -- When everybody is thinking the same way, you should start thinking: "it cannot be right if everybody is thinking the same way". --"""
Also: ,,B-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull-traps, speculator's paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often are unconfirmed by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, ´there is something wrong with this market´, chances are it's a B-wave.´´
-Robert Prechter, "The Elliot Wave Principle"
Keep in mind this is a long-term idea. I do post long and short calls on Bitcoin and other Altcoins within those big moves. For example those were my last calls:
Call 8300 Short Call 6400 Long
Call 8930 Short Call 8030 Long
Call 8785 USD Call 9k Bull-Flag to 9.9k
On Twitter: "Crypto_Academy_"
Follow me on Twitter if you like my Analysis and want to exchange some of your ideas with me. :))
Thank you a lot for reading through this.
I wish you best of luck!!!
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That was my first post on TradingView and it simply looks like my theory seems to work in tact about "Is Bitcon (really) in a Bull-Market?"
Need to say. The Charts are developing rather scary and bearish now after a few months. Just like my post here was predicting it. :)
My Twitter is: @Trading_Pros_ Currently
Follow me here and there as you can see Im trying my best. :)
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Just an update.
We seem to be approaching the green trend-line that I had drawn 5 months ago. This will be a key point of interest. Therefore I am buying on the trendline obviously. Even if I believe it wont hold on long-run and we still will visit lower levels. So if we fall lower to my I plan to keep having cash aswell in order to get the super cheap prices too just in case. :)))
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Update. We finally have reached the green trend-line. Now this is the question. Hold this as a new bull market trendline or break it down? A break down would be very significant as this trendline seems to be of a high importance.
About 90–95% of the traders /investors CONSISTENTLY lose money on #Crypto Market either in a bull or bear market. This is a well-known and publicized statistic.And it’s true!
zagaderp
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Somebody been watching some Alessio Rastani huh
TradingandNews
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@zagaderp, Yeah. I'm watching all Crypto YouTubers that there are and build up my own opinion based on those.
TradingandNews
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@zagaderp, Or rather said just examine what makes most sense for my own analysis.
Alessio and Chico Crypto are the two YouTubers that trully have some wise knowledge.
The other dudes like The Moon, Crypto Crew University, sunny decree, Crypto Jebb and many more really seem to be just some type of Meme-Tubers rather than some Crypto YouTubers.
zagaderp
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@Crypto_Academy_, yeah thats all fine and dandy we all do that, but we don't straight copy and paste what he said in a video and make a post about it
TradingandNews
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@zagaderp, All the TA I did here belongs to me.
I only took a quote of Robert Prechter and the other analyst.
It's also quoted, so what's your problem?
suesi
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@zagaderp, Since Alessio came out with this idea many people seem to accept it, and it is not a problem. People have different viewpoints and accordingly different charts and interestingly most seem very reasonable if you think it over. But the final word is with Bitcoin. We are now at a level where we must be very careful and take into consideration all the possibilities.
My own idea of the current move and what's going on here as stated in my Technical Analysis is this:
A healthy market needs retracements after every move. It needs to follow a certain trend. Surely we can go parabolic for some time, but then obviously a correction has to come.
Then we still MUST form a specific trend, surely it can even be almost a vertical trend like right now on BTC.
In any-case, we cannot keep going parabolic. As this is unsustainable.
So why do we need a trend? Because it shows strength in the market and that the dips are being bought, not only from the Market Maker but also from retail investors.
It shows that people trust and believe in the given asset or market and follow a given trend.
That is why I am watching BTC and I'm looking for a retracement for quite some time already, I want to see a trend forming.
Going parabolic only makes sense after 20k has been breached as there are no resistances anymore and we then can go on a new price discovery.
Just like it always was in the previous Bear/- Bull markets in crypto.