Bitcoin (BLX) — Regression Curve is a Better Bottom Indicator
In my previous note, I wrote about how I suspected we would see lower prices.
We have clearly violated that trend line (red line shown above) and have dumped far past $5K.
I take a very macro outlook partly due to halvening mechanics. The most comprehensive set of price data is the BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin (BLX). This aggregates price history back prior to 2011 across multiple exchanges.
When looking at BLX on the monthly log chart (shown above), we can clearly see that linear long term supports are violated in multiple cycles (yellow + red lines). I think a much better support to observe is a logarithmic regression curve (white dotted line).
Today this regression curve sits at roughly $2,000. We will likely see a bounce up from current price levels (oscillators showing oversold conditions) to retest $5K (possibly) and then a final capitulation wick down to this white dotted line. I would like to see price touch this line, followed by high volume buying.
It's been a brutal couple of weeks for a lot of people, but in my opinion we need to reach the "disgust" phase, where people are disgusted by the fact that they ever bought crypto. This sentiment (BTC ded) in combination with capitulation wick touching the white dotted line above followed by high volume buying. I think at that point, we'll have bottomed and have reset the cycle and slowly (1 year+) moving our way to the next bull run to $50K+.
I take a very macro outlook partly due to halvening mechanics. The most comprehensive set of price data is the BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin (BLX). This aggregates price history back prior to 2011 across multiple exchanges.
When looking at BLX on the monthly log chart (shown above), we can clearly see that linear long term supports are violated in multiple cycles (yellow + red lines). I think a much better support to observe is a logarithmic regression curve (white dotted line).
Today this regression curve sits at roughly $2,000. We will likely see a bounce up from current price levels (oscillators showing oversold conditions) to retest $5K (possibly) and then a final capitulation wick down to this white dotted line. I would like to see price touch this line, followed by high volume buying.
It's been a brutal couple of weeks for a lot of people, but in my opinion we need to reach the "disgust" phase, where people are disgusted by the fact that they ever bought crypto. This sentiment (BTC ded) in combination with capitulation wick touching the white dotted line above followed by high volume buying. I think at that point, we'll have bottomed and have reset the cycle and slowly (1 year+) moving our way to the next bull run to $50K+.