When looking at the long term trend, another possibility arose. I could see BTC going to the $17-20k range in October/November of this year instead of 10k then -- everyone thinks that's the long term bottom because it would find support at the top of the last bull trend. Then I could see bitcoin bouncing there for the short term (Nov-Jan) and falling lower (Feb-March) to hit the bottom at 10k in March 2022.