JefeCaan
Short

Bitcoin Has Not Even Capitulated Yet

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Forget about the bottom, Bitcoin has not even capitulated yet. Damn, I just love people and markets! How everything falls into place on its own. It's magical, unreal even how people fall for the same things over and over again. When I started trading seven years back, I was like no way this going to happen for long. I said to myself, "people are going to learn from this mistake and they'll be prepared the next time" but no, every time I saw the herd making the same mistakes over and over again. I guess markets never run out of suckers. Still, I find this so difficult to believe. Like how can this happen over and over again. Anyway, I digress. People are talking about Bitcoin having bottomed at $3,300 when it has not even capitulated yet.

You know what's perfect? I kept thinking where's the maximum pain scenario. A few weeks passed by and here we have it now. The whales pumped the price straight through $5,800-$6,000 without any hurdle. I'm not the only trader surprised by this. I know seasoned professional traders who did not see that coming. So, what did that do? It inflicted maximum pain on the bears. Imagine being short BTC right now, what would this parabolic move have done to you. It's brutal.

Now let's talk about the bulls. A few long green bars and everybody is all excited again. In fact, so excited that the sentiment has not even been this positive since the last parabolic run of 2017-18. Even the NVT ratio has never been this high in Bitcoin's entire history! Let that sink in for a minute. At a time when all of these indicators are screaming, "Sell, sell, sell" people are unconcerned. Everyone and their cousin is talking about a move to $20,000 or a new ATH by the end of the year. Imagine the maximum pain scenario when these people load up here and then the price falls to $1,800 or $1,200 in the months ahead. Yeah, it's going to be devastating but that's what we need for the trend to reverse. I've been saying this for a while now and those who have been around during 2014-15 can relate. It doesn't feel like this when the price bottoms. It feels like the end of Bitcoin . You are going to see more of "Bitcoin is dead", "the bubble popped" and the "ponzi collapsed". Be on your toes, fellow trader.
Comment: It's all a fugazi. https://twitter.com/JefeCaan/status/1128...
I hope lots of people on either side of the debate see this post/chart. @dRends35
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MA 100 weekly + BTCUSD 0.768 fibonacci is a strong support

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I couldn't agree with this more. Recently a few friends of mine asked me about Bitcoin. That scared me sh_tless... When average Joes start to ask about Bitcoin, it is usually a big warning signal.
And boy, when btc was attaking 8K, I was sitting on my hands, to supress the fomo. And it was really hard to do so.
+2 Reply
alpdemalp alpdemalp
@alpdemalp, like XAGUSD
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I am glad we still have bears like you in disbelief to fuel our next cyclical bull run. Good luck.
+2 Reply
JefeCaan MastaOfDisasta
@MastaOfDisasta, Not disbelief. We're in Denial. ;)
+1 Reply
mjers JefeCaan
@JefeCaan, Bull runs like this don't happen in a bear market. Sure, we can have a few short squeezes, but this isn't a short squeeze. At least, not anymore. Have you seen the volume coming in on the futures? It would need one hell of a sell-off to get us back to 3k.
This bear market is over and we're now having the first sell off. I'm honestly not seeing any high level TA in your analysis. You're making a hell of a lot assumptions and you're simply posting your personal opinion. That's why you're wrong, and many of your past analysis have been wrong. The trend is your friend, join the trend instead of calling those guys suckers.
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So my original idea from January 4, 2019 at which many people rolled their eyes and commented "oh no, never ever" was probably right!
Today it looks like this. We will see...
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Spot on. I wish it would go to a million but I think you are right. If it follows the purple trend lines you mention, they are getting shallower each time so it will take many years for Bitcoin to reach astronomical heights.
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