Here is my longterm view for the Bitcoin market. Before we begin, I have been attempting to post this from my phone, since I am traveling and don't currently have access to any other means of posting. Please excuse the technical difficulties. A complete view of the chart, as I see it, will be attached below, shortly after I post this.
As you can see, Bitcoin is in a very clear cyclical uptrend. As I've shown before, this uptrend clearly respects a specific curvature on the log chart (blue curved trendlines.) You may have heard that Bitcoin has a cycle every four years, but that is clearly untrue. To illustrate this, I have highlighted the cycles in different colors. The first cycle (in blue) lasted 47 weeks. The second cycle (in purple) lasted 129 weeks. The third cycle (in gold) lasted 211 weeks. Clearly, the cycles are not four years. I'm not sure hoe people concluded that, but they did. However, there is something IMMENSELY more interesting here. The cycles are on a perfectly linear rise! This is one of the most incredible things I have ever seen, in my eleven years as a technical analyst. What I mean by that, is that the time between cycles, when plotted on a graph, is rising in a trajectory that is perfectly linear. That means we can calculate, with a high level of certainty, when the next bull market peak will occur. Based on this linear rise in cycle duration, I have projected the the future bull market should peak after 295 weeks, in August of 2023. I have shown that on the chart (in green.)
Unfortunately, I cannot show this in a graphical representation on TView. I was able to plot it out on a chat by hand, but there is nothing that I can use in the TView software to show this. To the developers, it would be nice if we had a way to plot linear graphs, with standard X and Y axes, for studies such as this.
Knowing this, I can also estimate how much Bitcoin will be worth, in August of 2023. If it continues to follow the trajectory of the rising curvature on the log chart, we can expect that Bitcoin will be worth right around $150,000 in August of 2023. My expected general trajectory of the market is shown by the curve on the chart (in pink.)
As far as 2019 is concerned, I think the majority of the year will be spent between 3,000 and 5,000. That could potentially last into mid to late 2020, as we can see here on the log chart. Although I do believe that the bear market has ended, I don't expect the next bull market to begin until sometime next year.
Be sure to hit that follow button, and find me on Twitter, via the twitter link on my profile page, for more MagicPoopCannon content!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
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That is the chart that I have been trying to post. Sorry for the technical difficulties.
I want to stay positive about MPC, but this is the same guy who posts BTC was going to 1K at $3120 (coinbase) then the next day we were going to 5K as BTC bounced. He literally scans the ideas page on tradingview then posts other peoples work recreated as his own. How this guy is #1 every day really tells me a lot about this trading community. This isn't a trading community, this is twitter.
gvoommen
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@baileybd, Magic is a self-made billionaire :)
mythrin
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@gvoommen, yeah, he probably made all his money on his private trading group fees and not his trading.
Basil13
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Your last post was swearing bullish momentum what, two days ago? well done sir, well done
Ecua_Trader
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@Basil13, he gave a 2k prediction right before the rally and a bull prediction right before the bear bite. lol not sure what people see in this predictions but to me they are just hilarious.
Dimolad
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Wow thats insane... Look at the longer term chart for BTC. There was an exhaustive move up to near 20k which was driven predominantly by retail investors. That was a move with a lot of enthusiasm, euphoria and FOMO. There was little to no instituional investment. In order for BTC to hit 10k again, it will need a huge amount of investment and the likelihood of that investment coming from the retail market right after so many people got burned is very unlikely. Institutions are not touching this stuff either.
Compare BTC chart to Crude Oil chart. There is a similar pattern with n exhaustive move in a short period of time followed by a protracted decline. A market cannot quickly recover from such an exhaustive move after a major top has formed.
Where is the money gonna come from? You gotta look at the capital flows man!
kardia
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@Dimolad, you are making the mistake of thinking like a trader here. If currency is digitized globally (we are heading in this direction) and paper money is done away with, Bitcoin could potentially skyrocket in value due to its limited supply, and the masses will eventually have no choice but to use crypto to do business.
Dimolad
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@rev214us, that’s all hypothetical. At least thinking like a trader to thinking objectively.
I work within the financial sector and I can assure you the banks and gownrments will NEVER tolerate a competition force in the creation of money. They will attempt to outlaw bitcoin before it could ever be adopted.
Besides that, bitcoin doesn’t even meet the requirements of money/currency. It is Deflationary rather than inflationary. Why would I ever spend bitcoin if the supply decreases? I’d rather hoard it. In the known history, there had never been a form of currency that has EVER been deflationary (and don’t tell me gold because governments have always dictated the value of gold and watered it down to keep up with inflation, since the times of the Romans). BTc won’t be adopted as money and if the banks & gocernments are not going to tolerate it, what use does it have as a “safe haven”? The price is so volatile you would never be able to call it a “safe haven”.
The only purpose of BTC is a speculative trading vehicle.
kardia
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@Dimolad, we will see who is right 5 to 10 years from now.
kklim
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@rev214us, Dimolad makes a good argument, do you have a rebuttle to it?
I'm somewhat skeptical also because digital currency like whats happening in china is the Chinese Yuan transfered digitally, why does bitcoin need to get involved other than being a store of value driven by speculation?
Also to say crypto is going to disrupt institutional banks I dont know if it will or will not happen but I see a trend of online banks coming up charging lower fees than traditional banks, e.g Revolt and H26 bank apps that have millions of registered users and these are companies started very recently, things usually catch on pretty fast in the age of the internet how come crypto hasnt taken any market share if it is so efficient but these bank apps have?