Depending on which route BTC will like to take now, we will see different heights of the new All time high.
The resistance is curved as we know, because BTC at some point left the exponential growth channel. Of course, at some point it could decide to change this longterm behavior, but until now, based on historical data, it is reasonable to assume that this slowing down trend will continue.
So, I've drawn three scenarios.
The fast one would be the gold fractal: We continue pumping the next weeks and months until we'd reach around 65k as a top, plusminus of course.
The medium route would take us to 100K by 2020, and the slow route to 150K by end of 2021.
It will be interesting to see what BTC will want to do. I am unsure now myself. Personally I would prefer the slower variants, the 100k or 150k variants would be fine, but we don't know what the market wants yet.
Let's see which path BTC will want to take. If BTC starts making new ATHs already in 2019, I will not wait until 100k to start selling, that's for sure.
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It looks more and more as if the fast route is ruled out. So, medium or slow, meaning ATH by late 2020 or mid 2021 at the latest.
When will you realize this isn’t gonna happen lmao?
Or are you dumping on your followers?
GekkeBulgaar
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Medium!
SebastianofMoon
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@GekkeBulgaar, That is also my most preffered scenario. The best combination of price and timing, hehe!
stockischeap
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I agree with 55k by Halloween. BTW. Great Fib work. Are you using a mathematical model. Personal?
SebastianofMoon
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@stockischeap, Thanks :)
The model is based on a squareroot sqrt(x) function in the log chart, i calculate it by hand, because you cannot do curve fitting in tradingivew unfortunately.
I didn't invent it, there were others doing that back on Bitcointalk already back in 2014-15.
ReallyMe
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My understanding of how the technical indicators Bollinger Bands and RSI work and what they say suggests a slightly different scenario.
Of course, this could be completely wrong and the Bitcoin just keeps going on up, but that still seems much more likely to me at the moment ;-)
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, Hehe, why am I not surprised that the arrow is again pointing down in your chart XD Why don't you surprise us for once, and draw an insanely large arrow upwards :)
ReallyMe
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@FlaviusTodorius67, To be honest with you, I think Bitcoin is very close to the edge at the moment. If it rises above $ 10.9k, I'll probably become a buyer. First add 30% of the position and another 70% if it rises above $ 11k. But my reason tells me it's probably going to roll over the other way. I'd like to be surprised. Then I should be glad like to surprise you, too. No earlier. ;-)
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, It just rose above 10.9k ;) But I'll open a bottle of wine on the day when I finally see a bullish chart from you :) But of course, I can also understand your strategy and that you're cautious. Your ABC correction scenario was for a long time a very likely scenario.
Anyways, have a nice day, always good chatting with you :)
ReallyMe
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Thanks, same here ;-) Yes you're right, waiting for the 4h candle to close above 10.9k... Inscrutable are the ways of crypto... ;-)
Or are you dumping on your followers?