Bitcoin formed a bearish consolidation,Long Time Trendline ahead

Hi Community,

Im not a pro Trader but that's my view here. Pretty simple.
If you see things different feel free to comment.

Very unlikely: Bitcoin breaks trend line, moving higher then 100 EMA Weekly (around 5.2k)
Very unlikely Bitcoin crashes again closing a weekly / monthly under 1.8k
Likely: Bitcoin gets rejected of the long time trend line + 200 Weekly EMA -> Falling towards 2k (could indicate: breaking trend line afterwards + bottoming out)
Likely: Bitcoin breaks long time trend line to test levels around 4200-4800 before crashing again. (waiting for closing weekly)

Area to watch in the Future: around 1.8k (100 Monthly MA(EMA)) THIS AREA SHOULD HOLD!!!!
A Closing monthly under this is really bad for btc and all Altcoins

Trade active:

So price at BitMEX reached exactly its target for the first time since a long time at the descending major Trendline and got fully REJECTED with very high volume.
(Price was 4066) (Shorted myself 4065)
BTC shouldnt reach that price again in the next months...

Comment:

Little comment: Despite many other traders i think that the Altcoins get killed next Months if BTC goes up or down makes no difference. Money will flow to BTC again.
Sorry for my bad english...