Let's take a look at the man behind the curtain, shall we?
Bitcoin has what I call the "Basic Adoption Curve" that trends with the adoption rate just like any new technology gets adopted over time. This is the MEAN.
It then has "bubbles" that are formed by market insiders (whales) creating FOMO where the price breaks above the Basic Adoption Curve and they then sell to retail traders at retail prices.
They fill their "warehouse" full of the goods (Bitcoin) at the Basic Adoption Curve, where wholesale prices are. That's the lowest price they can drive it down to. When you look at the Wall Street Cheat Sheet this is what they mean by "revert to the mean" during the "bear market."
HODLrs ignore bubbles because their strategy is about the ever-growing adoption rate, or, MEAN.
But if you are really tired of losing money on lower time frames, just be patient and wait for the RSI on the weekly chart to go into oversold territory when the prices touches the lower part of the Basic Adoption Curve and ACCUMULATE at WHOLESALE prices like the big boys do. This is their business model and you can use it too.
Peace and Love, BI663R
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427 views and 4 thumbs up? WTH guys!
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Happy Valentine's Day! Since publishing this chart in Oct 2019 the price came down into the accumulation zone and has since bounced back from 6500 to over 10K. I caught the bottom and doubled my coin in two months thanks to this chart.
If I earned a shit coin for every failed chart I saw, I'd be rich.
B166ERcrypto
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@BeingCryptic, Thanks. It's getting more attention now that prices are going up lol. That's the problem with the people in this market. Bear times are for educating yourself and STRATEGIZING to get this crypto, not sitting around being sad!
It would be nice if you re-created this idea, but duplicated the curve and placed it on the bitcoin peaks as well. It might reveal the top of the next bull run, even though I have some ideas of where it's going.
B166ERcrypto
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@BeingCryptic, Yes I've done that and it's been done by others who have calculated it based on a few variables as well. I've done it and the problem is depending on how you curve the line it could be anywhere from 100K to 500K lol. So I think these lines are close but not perfect. It has elasticity, just like support and resistance levels. All I know from this adoption curve is that the price will go up. As to where it tops off I will be watching the price action and indicators to help me figure out when to sell. Many, Many, Many HODLR's will sell at 100K. That will be a very tough price point to break through, so that very well might be the next "super-top" Maybe Bitcoin's mempool fills up and it becomes useless for most folks so they switch to BCH and there's a flippening. We just don't know what will happen, but it will be exciting and I will be doing TA all along!!
FeederGastro
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I'd love to see and update
B166ERcrypto
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@sirK3, Well not too much to say except this chart is still accurate. I wondered whether the COVID liquidity dump would destroy this thesis...but it didn't. After the halving the price rose as expected. It pumped up for distribution. Next time Bitcoin is anywhere near this zone I'm all in. If you want frequent updates on this "regression band" idea Benjamin Cowen consistently puts out videos on YouTube. I'd post the link but TradingView doesn't allow that so just search for his channel. He's a good one to follow. Oh wait there's one more thing. You can see on this chart that when we reach the point where Bitcoin's last cycle top (the red horizontal lines) reach the bottom adoption curve line, that's been when Bitcoin begins its "Supercycle." Well, we're crossing that point right around now or soon! Doesn't mean price can't drop steeply then recover then blastoff but as you can see...that's what it's done before!!! Here's a recent update to this chart I did showing this fractal at play:
FeederGastro
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@B166ERcrypto, Awesome brother, thank you for your reply ;)
ivaniliev_85
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I very much liked your chart! Well Done!
Myself (and others I assume) would really appreciate a regular update on the above! Hope you can make it happen :)
B166ERcrypto
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@ivaniliev_85, Thank you. I hope this information helps add to your own analysis. This was my first published idea so I look forward to updating periodically. I have lots of other charts of evidence of this phenomenon as well so check em out.
Then again I'm not. The majority of people tend to flock towards traders who don't know seem to know what they're talking about.