The world won't end if weekly MA200 is broken!
Even the legendary Masterluc himself, gives too much credit to the MA200. And yes, it is an important support, because it acted as solid support in the 2014/15 bearmarket.
However, before that, the MA100 was considered solid support, and it was broken in the 2014/15 bearmarket.
It seems that we go further down on the MAs, probably this time, MA300 will act as solid support, in the 2000's. A flash crash below that is possible, which would nicely line up
with the 1800 area, that I had in mind since quite a while.
The moving averages move such, that they creep towards the sqrt trendline, because the trendline is getting flatter and flatter with time, so that the higher numbered MA's have time to
creep towards it. Therefore the square-root trendline acts together with the weekly moving averages as support for BTC.
I stronlgy believe that after BTC has found the bottom in this bearmarket, and most weak hands are shaken out (as in the last cycles), we can start the new uptrend in 2020.
I always also look at number of wallet growth, and daily transactions over at blockchain.info, and yes, btc is still growing exponentially, no surprises there :) Disruptive technologies always do that, and we are still far
away from saturation point (will be when BTC users go into the billions)
I corrected the ATH date a bit behind, after I saw the excellent analysis from TradingShot, he figured out the cycle length, which is more accurate than my initial cycle length:
His chart, together with this one, should give a good estimate on the timeline and possible lows and highs of this and the next cycle.
Good luck fishing the bottom in the next few months :)
The strong hands will be rewarded a few years later, I am very convinced of that.
However, before that, the MA100 was considered solid support, and it was broken in the 2014/15 bearmarket.
It seems that we go further down on the MAs, probably this time, MA300 will act as solid support, in the 2000's. A flash crash below that is possible, which would nicely line up
with the 1800 area, that I had in mind since quite a while.
The moving averages move such, that they creep towards the sqrt trendline, because the trendline is getting flatter and flatter with time, so that the higher numbered MA's have time to
creep towards it. Therefore the square-root trendline acts together with the weekly moving averages as support for BTC.
I stronlgy believe that after BTC has found the bottom in this bearmarket, and most weak hands are shaken out (as in the last cycles), we can start the new uptrend in 2020.
I always also look at number of wallet growth, and daily transactions over at blockchain.info, and yes, btc is still growing exponentially, no surprises there :) Disruptive technologies always do that, and we are still far
away from saturation point (will be when BTC users go into the billions)
I corrected the ATH date a bit behind, after I saw the excellent analysis from TradingShot, he figured out the cycle length, which is more accurate than my initial cycle length:
His chart, together with this one, should give a good estimate on the timeline and possible lows and highs of this and the next cycle.
Good luck fishing the bottom in the next few months :)
The strong hands will be rewarded a few years later, I am very convinced of that.