THEORY - I never understood why most students needed to learn what a Log was until I've studied a BTC chart. - A Log curve in simple term goes 0 to .99999999 - It never touches 1. It is infinite. Meaning it goes forever always getting closer to 1. - My assumption is that BTC will become stable one day. It may take many more halving's for that to happen. - With that being said, that's why BTC is an excellent investment opportunity in the year 2020. (Of course with a proper bottom entry) - Each halving comes a significant reduction of (RIO) Return On Investment. CHART - After many hours of studying this chart. I observed a pattern. BTC usually switches trends yearly on the macro level. - I base that theory on this chart. If historical evidence does in fact repeat then my theory analysis will be true. - I like to think of this chart of like playing darts w/ a blindfold on. It is a million dollar question. OPPOSING VIEW - Many say BTC is in a Wyckoff pattern. " Fill the gap"
I tend to believe that Bitcoin will revolutionize the world the same way the internet has been able to. I will remain optimistic because I believe in the technology.
Like & drop a comment on what you think will happen.
@disobey, bro, It's logarithmic chart and you know what they say: "Logarithmic charts are windows into the future" and "Logarithmic charts never lie so buy bitcoin bro''
@AthenticWhale1, I made also a S2F model based on the trend of the 2 previous halvings, where the 2nd halving is going less higher than the 1st one :
HeyJonBray
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While I agree that Bitcoin has the potential for further logarithmic growth, you're understanding of log charts is incorrect. You are in fact throwing darts with a blindfold on in a way.
The difference between a log chart and a linear chart is simply the scale of the Y-axis. A linear chart's scale is distinct and each point represents an equal amount, while a logarithmic chart spreads the value out as if it were approaching infinity. That in no way implies that the asset being measured is forever is getting closer to it's infinite bound. A log chart simply scales from zero to the upper limit value ("approaching" infinity); but infinity is arbitrary and depends on the chart.
There is absolutely no correlation between an asset's price and whether you're using a log or linear chart, it is a scale; nothing more than a tool to display a value with a large relative change between it's high and low in a more user-friendly way. Due to the scaling, a log chart will always make an asset look as if it is becoming more stable, because as you go higher up the Y-axis of the chart, the intervals get smaller and smaller. If you're assuming that BTC will stabilize based on a log chart, you're being fooled by the scale which, by itself, is NOT an accurate portrait of volatility.
Also, the halving does not reduce ROI. It only reduces the incoming supply of BTC, nothing more. Market forces determine what happens to the price, halving or no halving, as we can see even your "consolidation" periods show pretty aggressive growth.
Your "consolidation" between November 2011 and November 2012 is actually a bull run with a 400% price increase; Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 represents a 200% bull run, and Jan 2019 to Jan 2020 a 300% increase in price. The yellow areas actually indicate an INCREASE in volatility in 4-year cycles.
The bull trend you have starting in 2020 looks like a bull run, it is only represents a 27% increase in price so far. Since the scale isn't linear, early price movements look extremely exaggerated compared to later ones. If we were to just make a prediction based on the fact that it's a log chart and without any knowledge of what's being measured, it would appear that the curve is flattening and approaching a 10-year peak around 20k
If you don't really understand the scale, looks can be deceiving. There are definitely very distinct bear trends representing a ~85% decrease in price roughly one year after every halving. Each halving has sparked a bull run that saw an 8000%, 2500%, and (so far) 30% increase in price respectively.
According to the pattern, this current bull run should give us a 1000% increase from last halving price, meaning a price of $94,500 by May 2021 (assuming the curve isn't flattening to 20k).
UnknownUnicorn100937
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@HeyJonBray, I think the reason many people use the log charts is that they're trying to predict the possible effect of the halvings on prices. Because if you use the linear chart, measuring the triangle breakout on the weekly, for instance, would give a target of roughly $ 30K. The actual price is a result of fundamental factors such as market adoption and penetration, and market forces as well (fluctuations). It can be the case that the halvings end up triggering the bull runs as higher highs are made, coupled with higher market adoption/penetration and dwindling "supplies".