Does BTC's history leave a clue for us going forward?
Looking at the 2011, 2013, 2014 (slightly less emphasis on this one as it was a much quicker move), and 2017 bull runs:
I won't go into the percentage retracements as everyone has already talked about that to death, but I did want to look at the Fibonacci retracements as I haven't come across a comparison of such. What I've seen (refer to charts below) is that we have retraced below the 0.236 fib (or 0.786 if you're reversed) to reach bottom in all cases (2013 dipped slightly below and then bounced) and then came back to retest the fib line with another rejection followed by a confirmed lower high and confirmation of bull reversal. After this, we know the price moves sideways for a bit and then moves upwards to its bullish movement upwards until it reaches a conclusive parabolic explosion and beginning of the next correction. To be slightly hypocritical in discussing percentages... the 2011 move retraced about 75% further after breaking 0.236 fib support. The 2014 move retraced about 35% further. If we wanted to extrapolate an assumption from this data (since that's all we can do besides wait to see what BTC does) we could say the price movement halved after breaking 0.236 support. If we estimate that our current retracement will drop ~15% below the 0.236 fib (which is at ~$5000) we would have a price around $4200.
Based on the aforementioned, if we were to repeat BTC correction history I would be inclined to believe that we will drop to around $4200 before bouncing and retesting $5000 where we will meet some resistance and find support below, possibly at something around $4500. This would then be the confirmed reversal and end of the bear market. Obviously, if there are reports of an ETF approval/rejection or further news about BAKKT or some other Titanic-esque announcement this could change. Keep in mind, an ETF approval/rejection could already be priced into the market, and thus, we may have some upwards momentum and still be slammed down to these levels following the release of some news. Time will tell.
(Technical analysts don't have crystal balls and if someone claims they know what's going to happen I'd suggest you ignore them. This is all merely speculation based on probabilities and historical analysis)
I won't go into the percentage retracements as everyone has already talked about that to death, but I did want to look at the Fibonacci retracements as I haven't come across a comparison of such. What I've seen (refer to charts below) is that we have retraced below the 0.236 fib (or 0.786 if you're reversed) to reach bottom in all cases (2013 dipped slightly below and then bounced) and then came back to retest the fib line with another rejection followed by a confirmed lower high and confirmation of bull reversal. After this, we know the price moves sideways for a bit and then moves upwards to its bullish movement upwards until it reaches a conclusive parabolic explosion and beginning of the next correction. To be slightly hypocritical in discussing percentages... the 2011 move retraced about 75% further after breaking 0.236 fib support. The 2014 move retraced about 35% further. If we wanted to extrapolate an assumption from this data (since that's all we can do besides wait to see what BTC does) we could say the price movement halved after breaking 0.236 support. If we estimate that our current retracement will drop ~15% below the 0.236 fib (which is at ~$5000) we would have a price around $4200.
Based on the aforementioned, if we were to repeat BTC correction history I would be inclined to believe that we will drop to around $4200 before bouncing and retesting $5000 where we will meet some resistance and find support below, possibly at something around $4500. This would then be the confirmed reversal and end of the bear market. Obviously, if there are reports of an ETF approval/rejection or further news about BAKKT or some other Titanic-esque announcement this could change. Keep in mind, an ETF approval/rejection could already be priced into the market, and thus, we may have some upwards momentum and still be slammed down to these levels following the release of some news. Time will tell.
(Technical analysts don't have crystal balls and if someone claims they know what's going to happen I'd suggest you ignore them. This is all merely speculation based on probabilities and historical analysis)
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