Estimated Tothemoon Model. $150K in 2022

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Welcome to advanced Tothemoon analysis!

Well I did something) The estimated Tothemoon model.
This is an example of how you can use the fundamental Bitcoin metrics along with simple proportions and drawings. And without any H&S , gartleys and butterflies. Okay, I'll tell you briefly what I've done.

Used tools:
1) Cost per Transaction ($/Tx, miners revenue divided by the number of transactions)
2) The blue line represents Bitcoin's ATH price
3) The black line represents ATH $/ Tx mapped to the corresponding price on the chart
4) Bitcoin Halvings (the dates are shifted because the time scale doesn't contain such dates)

I made several conclusions that may seem obvious, but still:
  • ATHs of the $/ Tx and price happened at the same time.

  • $/ Tx starts to decrease after a new ATH price was reached.

  • A new $/ Tx peak will happen in the middle of 2022.

  • The ATH-to-ATH price movement can give about 600%. Each new ATH-to-ATH gain is approximately one-third of the previous gain.

  • The price starts to grow up after each halving.

  • The price crosses its ATH levels after each halving.

  • So, we cannot be sure that the previous ATH of $20K will be reached before the 3rd halving will happen.

  • The periods that are needed to pass ATH levels after each halving look like an arithmetic progression. For the 1st halving it was about 4 months, for the 2nd - 8 months. Thus, for the 3rd it can be 12 months.

  • The 3rd halving's growth will be 900-1000% approximately.

  • We can expect approximately a 2-year growth after the 3rd halving.

  • According to the model the price can drop again in the nearest months of 2019.

  • And then it will continue to approach the ATH $/ Tx level. There can play positive news about Bakkt and ETFs.

  • Bitcoin will reach $100K in 3 years.

  • The estimated target at the end of the 3rd halving cycle is $150K.

You can see all of this on the chart.

Good luck and Happy Trading!
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Your analysis and scripts are the best of TV. Congratulations! Can you recommend some books, authors or channels about cicles and crypto? Thanks from Brazil.
+2 Reply
everget nprado2018
@nprado2018, Thank you sir. I will send you some books
+1 Reply
gringoo everget
@everget, me too sir i apprciate you eforts. and i be thankfull if you send me too some books
when i saw this chart you did and i realized it looks pretty much like so many moon charts i've drawn for fun ... it frightens me (Yikes!) and makes me think it will never happen quite like i thought. love your work. thank you so much for all the insights and tools you share. very. much. appreciated.
+1 Reply
nice work done.
+1 Reply
everget Make_Money_Guru_Bitcoin
About 90–95% of the traders /investors CONSISTENTLY lose money on Crypto Market either in a bull or bear market. This is a well-known and publicized statistic.And it’s true!

everget CryptoEngineering
@CryptoEngineering, okay. I just didnt realize why did you write this? What does this have to do with my idea?
+3 Reply
@everget, nothing personal with your idea. The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason dude
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