Well I did something) The estimated Tothemoon model.
This is an example of how you can use the fundamental Bitcoin metrics along with simple proportions and drawings. And without any , gartleys and butterflies. Okay, I'll tell you briefly what I've done.
1) Cost per Transaction ($/Tx, miners revenue divided by the number of transactions)
2) The blue line represents Bitcoin's ATH price
3) The black line represents ATH $/ Tx mapped to the corresponding price on the chart
4) Bitcoin Halvings (the dates are shifted because the time scale doesn't contain such dates)
I made several conclusions that may seem obvious, but still:
- ATHs of the $/ Tx and price happened at the same time.
- $/ Tx starts to decrease after a new ATH price was reached.
- A new $/ Tx peak will happen in the middle of 2022.
- The ATH-to-ATH price movement can give about 600%. Each new ATH-to-ATH gain is approximately one-third of the previous gain.
- The price starts to grow up after each halving.
- The price crosses its ATH levels after each halving.
- So, we cannot be sure that the previous ATH of $20K will be reached before the 3rd halving will happen.
- The periods that are needed to pass ATH levels after each halving look like an arithmetic progression. For the 1st halving it was about 4 months, for the 2nd - 8 months. Thus, for the 3rd it can be 12 months.
- The 3rd halving's growth will be 900-1000% approximately.
- We can expect approximately a 2-year growth after the 3rd halving.
- According to the model the price can drop again in the nearest months of 2019.
- And then it will continue to approach the ATH $/ Tx level. There can play positive news about Bakkt and ETFs.
- Bitcoin will reach $100K in 3 years.
- The estimated target at the end of the 3rd halving cycle is $150K.
You can see all of this on the chart.
Good luck and Happy Trading!
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