Well I did something) The estimated Tothemoon model. This is an example of how you can use the fundamental Bitcoin metrics along with simple proportions and drawings. And without any H&S, gartleys and butterflies. Okay, I'll tell you briefly what I've done.
Used tools: 1) Cost per Transaction (/Tx, miners revenue divided by the number of transactions) 2) The blue line represents Bitcoin's ATH price 3) The black line represents ATH /Tx mapped to the corresponding price on the chart 4) Bitcoin Halvings (the dates are shifted because the time scale doesn't contain such dates)
I made several conclusions that may seem obvious, but still:
ATHs of the /Tx and price happened at the same time.
/Tx starts to decrease after a new ATH price was reached.
A new /Tx peak will happen in the middle of 2022.
The ATH-to-ATH price movement can give about 600%. Each new ATH-to-ATH gain is approximately one-third of the previous gain.
The price starts to grow up after each halving.
The price crosses its ATH levels after each halving.
So, we cannot be sure that the previous ATH of 20K will be reached before the 3rd halving will happen.
The periods that are needed to pass ATH levels after each halving look like an arithmetic progression. For the 1st halving it was about 4 months, for the 2nd - 8 months. Thus, for the 3rd it can be 12 months.
The 3rd halving's growth will be 900-1000% approximately.
We can expect approximately a 2-year growth after the 3rd halving.
According to the model the price can drop again in the nearest months of 2019.
And then it will continue to approach the ATH /Tx level. There can play positive news about Bakkt and ETFs.
Bitcoin will reach 100K in 3 years.
The estimated target at the end of the 3rd halving cycle is 150K.
Your analysis and scripts are the best of TV. Congratulations! Can you recommend some books, authors or channels about cicles and crypto? Thanks from Brazil.
everget
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@nprado2018, Thank you sir. I will send you some books
gringoo
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@everget, me too sir i apprciate you eforts. and i be thankfull if you send me too some books
suvny21
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interesting post!
stepstones
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when i saw this chart you did and i realized it looks pretty much like so many moon charts i've drawn for fun ... it frightens me (Yikes!) and makes me think it will never happen quite like i thought. love your work. thank you so much for all the insights and tools you share. very. much. appreciated.
Im a bit new to trading crypto trying to understand everything.
Is there a way i can understand how to utilize this tool to guage entry and exit?
KirillNET
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+1
CryptoEngineering
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About 90–95% of the traders /investors CONSISTENTLY lose money on Crypto Market either in a bull or bear market. This is a well-known and publicized statistic.And it’s true!