Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the weekly BLX chart, we can see tat Bitcoin continues to struggle at overhead resistance. That resistance is the weekly 50 EMA (in orange,) which is intersecting exactly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is produced from the decline from 6000-3000. We also have big resistance at 5500, from the low on November 12th, 2017, which the recent high was rejected at. However, Bitcoin has surpassed a descending trendline (in black,) that has recently been popularized on the internet as a key part of a potential "bump and run reversal" bottom formation (more on that later.)
So, we are at a critical retracement level (61.8%,) while simultaneously testing a critical moving average (weekly 50 EMA,) after being rejected at lateral overhead resistance (5500,) but above some newly found support (lead in trendline.) Taking all of that into consideration, I have come to the conclusion that I must do my own assessment of this bump and run reversal theory, to see if it sway's my view. Because currently, from a pure probability standpoint, I do believe that there is a much higher chance that we fall from here, as opposed to the probability that Bitcoin continues to rally. With that said, perhaps the bump and run reversal argument has merit (anything is possible.) Regardless, if we did move higher, the upside would likely be very limited. You can see that the weekly 50 MA (in red) is falling toward price action, just above the weekly 50 EMA. So, if BTC broke out higher, it would have to contend with that, and then the ultimate resistance zone between 5777 and slightly above 6000 (in red.) With that said, I am still cautiously sitting on the sidelines, after taking profits from my long that I've added to since December.
Looking at the Stochastic RSI, we can see that it is pegged on 100, and has been there since the beginning of March. Additionally, the daily RSI just came off of near record overbought territory, and the daily MACD is also showing signs of exhaustion, after printing a bearish crossover a few days ago.
Recently, I saw the argument that has been circulating around the internet regarding the bump and run bottoming setup for Bitcoin. While I do think that the bottom is in, I'm not too sure about the bump and run reversal theory. So, let's take a look at the chart in depth, to see how that theory stacks up with the technical requirements necessary to produce a bump and run reversal.
1. Lead in Trendline: "If it's too steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45 degrees is preferable." Our lead in trendline is -23°.
This is below the "preferable" range.
2. Bump Phase: "Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees." Our bump phase trendline is -54°.
This is in line with the required angle.
3. Bump Validation: "The distance from the lowest low of the bump to the lead-in trend line should be at least twice the distance from the lowest low in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line. These distances can be measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the lead-in trend line."
Distance of lowest low of bump to lead in: 3008
Distance of lowest low of lead in to lead in: 2185.
So, 3008 is not "at least twice" the distance of 2185. Therefore, the bump was not validated.
4. Bump Rollover: Clearly we saw a bump rollover when price rose from the lows.
5. Volume: The volume progression looks consistent with that of the bump and run reversal volume requirements.
6. Run Phase: "The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support from the lead-in trend line... Once the break occurs, the run phase takes over, and the rally continues."
According to this description, we are in the "run phase."
7. Resistance Turns Support: "After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that tests the newfound support level. Potential resistance-turned-support levels can also be identified from the reaction highs within the bump."
So, based on this, we could see price return to the lead in trendline, to test it for support. That could also be near the highs formed during the bump phase.
In summary, this is not a perfect textbook bump and run reversal pattern. I think it does help to confirm that the bottom is in. However, I still think the overhead resistance is too great to be broken right now, and the indicators show clear exhaustion. Therefore, we should expect price to return to the lead in trendline, to test it for support as the theory suggests. That is what I think is the most likely scenario. From there, I think Bitcoin will progressively become more bullish.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
So, we are at a critical retracement level (61.8%,) while simultaneously testing a critical moving average (weekly 50 EMA,) after being rejected at lateral overhead resistance (5500,) but above some newly found support (lead in trendline.) Taking all of that into consideration, I have come to the conclusion that I must do my own assessment of this bump and run reversal theory, to see if it sway's my view. Because currently, from a pure probability standpoint, I do believe that there is a much higher chance that we fall from here, as opposed to the probability that Bitcoin continues to rally. With that said, perhaps the bump and run reversal argument has merit (anything is possible.) Regardless, if we did move higher, the upside would likely be very limited. You can see that the weekly 50 MA (in red) is falling toward price action, just above the weekly 50 EMA. So, if BTC broke out higher, it would have to contend with that, and then the ultimate resistance zone between 5777 and slightly above 6000 (in red.) With that said, I am still cautiously sitting on the sidelines, after taking profits from my long that I've added to since December.
Looking at the Stochastic RSI, we can see that it is pegged on 100, and has been there since the beginning of March. Additionally, the daily RSI just came off of near record overbought territory, and the daily MACD is also showing signs of exhaustion, after printing a bearish crossover a few days ago.
Recently, I saw the argument that has been circulating around the internet regarding the bump and run bottoming setup for Bitcoin. While I do think that the bottom is in, I'm not too sure about the bump and run reversal theory. So, let's take a look at the chart in depth, to see how that theory stacks up with the technical requirements necessary to produce a bump and run reversal.
1. Lead in Trendline: "If it's too steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45 degrees is preferable." Our lead in trendline is -23°.
This is below the "preferable" range.
2. Bump Phase: "Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees." Our bump phase trendline is -54°.
This is in line with the required angle.
3. Bump Validation: "The distance from the lowest low of the bump to the lead-in trend line should be at least twice the distance from the lowest low in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line. These distances can be measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the lead-in trend line."
Distance of lowest low of bump to lead in: 3008
Distance of lowest low of lead in to lead in: 2185.
So, 3008 is not "at least twice" the distance of 2185. Therefore, the bump was not validated.
4. Bump Rollover: Clearly we saw a bump rollover when price rose from the lows.
5. Volume: The volume progression looks consistent with that of the bump and run reversal volume requirements.
6. Run Phase: "The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support from the lead-in trend line... Once the break occurs, the run phase takes over, and the rally continues."
According to this description, we are in the "run phase."
7. Resistance Turns Support: "After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that tests the newfound support level. Potential resistance-turned-support levels can also be identified from the reaction highs within the bump."
So, based on this, we could see price return to the lead in trendline, to test it for support. That could also be near the highs formed during the bump phase.
In summary, this is not a perfect textbook bump and run reversal pattern. I think it does help to confirm that the bottom is in. However, I still think the overhead resistance is too great to be broken right now, and the indicators show clear exhaustion. Therefore, we should expect price to return to the lead in trendline, to test it for support as the theory suggests. That is what I think is the most likely scenario. From there, I think Bitcoin will progressively become more bullish.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-