History may not repeat itself with precision, but it does rhymes.....The Bitcoin's price action since Nov 2018 to date is showing a near perfect similarity with the 2013/2014 bear market chart, an indication that the bear trend of Bitcoin may finally be coming to an end if history truly rhymes.
In my previous post, I continue to lean bearish as there were already signs of exhaustion in the upward move of Bitcoin' price, moreover the 50 week MA stood as a very strong resistance for the bulls.
Comparing the 2013/2014 and 2017/2018 bear market chart, we could see that in 2015, we found support at the 200 week MA after capitulation and then got a higher low and a higher high towards the 50 week ( thin red line) and trend line which both acted as a confluence of resistance where we got reject and dropped down 37.23% to retest the 200 week MA (thin orange line) and trend line support after breaking below the 20 week MA (yellow thin line)
At this resistance point (50 week MA), stochastic was over extended above the 80% level, while the RSI was at its historical resistance area at 55% level.
The same pattern seems to be playing out right now, recent price action confirms a fractal repetition of the 2013/2014 bear market.
Price broke bearish from the 6000 Psychological support area in Nov 2018, but found support on the 200 week MA, after which we got our higher low after a retest of the 200 week MA and then broke above the 20 week MA to get our higher high on the 50 week MA around 5500 resistance area where we just got rejected few days back.
Also at this point (50 week MA), stochastic is pretty over extended above the 80% level and about to cross bearish, while the RSI is also at its historical weekly resistance area of 55%.
If history does truly rhymes, and we confirm that this is indeed a fractal repetition, all things being equal, we could get another 37.23% move downwards to retest the 200 week MA which will be around 3650-3700 and a possible wick down to the 3450-3270 level followed by a period of boring consolidation before the uptrend finally begins.
For A Confirmation Of An Utrend, Watch out For:
1) A final shakeout, and a possible retest of previous low, followed by a close of the candle above the 200 week MA and at least a 2-3 months consolidation above this MA before an uptrend.
2) A bull cross of the 20 and 50 week MA
3) A break and stay of price above the 20 and 50 week MA.
3) Weekly RSI finally breaks above its weekly resistance at 55% and finds support above this level, after retesting previous low.
4) Bull cross of weekly stochastic from below 30% level upwards. (Stochastic must first retest this level).
On the flip side, if we break below previous low, this will cause a bloody shakeout in the market, and we may see a final bottom in the 1800-1200 support levels.
This is not to say we will see this levels, but it should be expected because in cryptocurrency space, anything can happen.
In my previous post, I continue to lean bearish as there were already signs of exhaustion in the upward move of Bitcoin' price, moreover the 50 week MA stood as a very strong resistance for the bulls.
Comparing the 2013/2014 and 2017/2018 bear market chart, we could see that in 2015, we found support at the 200 week MA after capitulation and then got a higher low and a higher high towards the 50 week ( thin red line) and trend line which both acted as a confluence of resistance where we got reject and dropped down 37.23% to retest the 200 week MA (thin orange line) and trend line support after breaking below the 20 week MA (yellow thin line)
At this resistance point (50 week MA), stochastic was over extended above the 80% level, while the RSI was at its historical resistance area at 55% level.
The same pattern seems to be playing out right now, recent price action confirms a fractal repetition of the 2013/2014 bear market.
Price broke bearish from the 6000 Psychological support area in Nov 2018, but found support on the 200 week MA, after which we got our higher low after a retest of the 200 week MA and then broke above the 20 week MA to get our higher high on the 50 week MA around 5500 resistance area where we just got rejected few days back.
Also at this point (50 week MA), stochastic is pretty over extended above the 80% level and about to cross bearish, while the RSI is also at its historical weekly resistance area of 55%.
If history does truly rhymes, and we confirm that this is indeed a fractal repetition, all things being equal, we could get another 37.23% move downwards to retest the 200 week MA which will be around 3650-3700 and a possible wick down to the 3450-3270 level followed by a period of boring consolidation before the uptrend finally begins.
For A Confirmation Of An Utrend, Watch out For:
1) A final shakeout, and a possible retest of previous low, followed by a close of the candle above the 200 week MA and at least a 2-3 months consolidation above this MA before an uptrend.
2) A bull cross of the 20 and 50 week MA
3) A break and stay of price above the 20 and 50 week MA.
3) Weekly RSI finally breaks above its weekly resistance at 55% and finds support above this level, after retesting previous low.
4) Bull cross of weekly stochastic from below 30% level upwards. (Stochastic must first retest this level).
On the flip side, if we break below previous low, this will cause a bloody shakeout in the market, and we may see a final bottom in the 1800-1200 support levels.
This is not to say we will see this levels, but it should be expected because in cryptocurrency space, anything can happen.
