Every time we look at the monthly BTC chart, we learn some interesting stuff regarding the longer timeframe development of BTC.
For example we can clearly see that we have entered the bullmarket now, because the monthly Stoch RSI is now on overbought, and normally remains there 1-2 years. This is historical behavior, of which I think that BTC will not just randomly change it.
So the ABC type correction people, who think that the run to 14k was the B correction wave, completely ignore this dynamics here, and think that the 20k top was the top of wave 5. Noobs :) They really need to study the BTC monthly picture a bit more. And they of course also ignore fundamentals like Hashrate, number of transactions, halving, and adoption in general.
In addition, we see that we hit the upper monthly bband, a resistance area which I indentified 2 months ago, where I said that the upper monthly bband would mean an area of strong resistance, see here:
This has also been historically the case now, every time. At the beginning of every bullmarket, BTC pushes for the upper monthly bband, then gets somewhat rejected, and goes sideways for 2-4 months with a few minor dumps in between.
So for the gold fractal to come true, we'd need to brutally push forward through the bband, which in my opinion can happen, but is not as likely as the other more normal scenarios. I can see BTC going sideways now for a few months, until it will push further up.
So, the monthly picture is more in favor of a longer lasting runup, whereas the gold fractal says we'll continue upwards. I am undecided which path BTC will take, I just am pretty sure that the BTC bullmarket has begun and we'll see new all time highs either this year, or 2020 at the latest. The longer BTC will linger here at the upper bband, the higher the ATH will be :)
And because I live in Germany, where sales from coins become tax free after 1 year of HODLing, I have absolutely nothing against BTC relaxing a bit more, before pushing towards new highs :)
@Rogue7, Thanks :) Yes, many people focus too much on the shorter timeframes, completely ignoring the bigger picture.
emk9876
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Thanks for posting
SebastianofMoon
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@mukund_kishore, You're welcome :)
emk9876
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@FlaviusTodorius67, What do you think of the stock to flow model of PlanB on Twitter? Thx
SebastianofMoon
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@mukund_kishore, Looks highly interesting I have to say. Looks like a very good fit. So his date for a major rally would be end of 2020 by that model, did I get this right?
emk9876
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Yes, that's right. The price goes up 3x in the 10 months pre - halving, which is where we are now. So price on May 2020 = app. $ 30K (today's price times 3). Then after halving based on FOMO/Greed etc price goes up another 3-10x. So, 30K times 3 = 90K conservative. 30K times 10x aggressive. (90-300K range). Thx for youtube videos too on TSLA.
emk9876
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@mukund_kishore, Dec 2021 peak is more likely, I think acc. to model
SebastianofMoon
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@mukund_kishore, Interesting! Normally, my models were also always pointing to late 2021 as the ATH peak, at around 150k ATH, so that would fit the timeframe and also the price (90-300k range). But this newest rally here, I have to say, makes me think if BTC is not up to for a surprise this time, meaning, this time we'd see ATH faster.
That it might get a "sell the news" event with the ATH already hitting in May 2020 for the halving at 100k.
So I am not sure if BTC wants to be so slow this time also. This rally from 3 to 14k was quite aggressive and really really early.
Hehe, you're welcome. I'm a huge fan of Elon Musks companies, this man is a genius, and we're really lucky to have him.
I want to contribute my small part to promote his ideas and companies. Thanks for watching our videos :)