Welcome for another grand update on Bitcoin part of THE BEAR MARKET CONTINUES PART XI.
I am still convinced that we are in the wave (c) of the supercycle and we will see a huge fall, the biggest in history. We can see a lot of evidence on the graph that signals this. The peak we could see at 65K was not as typical as the previous main peaks. it had an arcuate shape. Which I consider to be wave (b), ie the correction wave. The other peaks are sharp and indicate impulse waves. Furthermore, we can see the structure of the ending diagonal at the top. Triple bearish divergence on a weekly chart. You'll never find this in chart history before. We also see the Evening star on the monthly chart. We also see declining volumes at high time frames.
On the chart we see a huge Fibo channel. So far, we have only been in the upper half. If we get to the bottom half, it's very likely that we'll see prices around $ 1,000. Notice the MA 300 weekly in red. It was tested in March 2020. We've never gotten under MA 300 in the history of the chart. That's why I think we'll see a big bounce there. The first wave could end there. The third wave would break through the center line of the channel and the fourth wave would test this line. The fifth wave would test the bottom line of the channel. In my opinion, this is a logical movement.
On RSI you see a red horizontal line at 53.34. She was a support throughout the bull run in 2016-2017. Whenever the price fell below WMA 21, the RSI also fell below the red line. Hidden GAP is a zone that the price just flew through and never tested.
This is a projection of Expanded or Irregular FLAT. In this correction, wave (b) must not return more than 161.8% of wave (a). That is still fulfilled. Wave (c) should return at least 138.2% of wave (b) (FINAL TARGET).
Right Fibonacci Retracement wave (b) Left Fibonacci Retracement wave (a)
Evening star on the monthly chart
Ending diagonal on the Top
And what is a really alarming signal? The NVT indicator, which reached 260, was never that much. Values above 150 are considered a bubble.
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NVT signal epic bubble
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We can see on the chart that the peak from April was exceeded, but only a little. Subsequently, the price returned below the level of 161.8% of the wave (a), where it is now. If the weekly candle closes below this level, it will be a false signal. Furthermore, the 5th wave from April was canceled for us. This means that it can be the third wave and this peak only the fifth wave. When we look at the monthly chart, we see a huge bearish divergence on RSI and declining volumes. This may signal an impending fall. At the peak of around 67,000, we saw that the NVT indicator exceeded 300 points. Above 150 points, the market is considered to be in a bubble.
Yes, it will end up like this, a trend I like very much
SwitchBranch
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Haha, I'd love it to be true. Time will tell
yozr23361
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this analysis invalidated you think?
Fox666
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@ali_1673, Decides weekly and monthly close.
yozr23361
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@Fox666, i think your analysis is perfect because there is a strong resistance near 66k
suvny21
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oops,,wrong analysis :)
synth0
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Anything can happen of course, but according to Stock-to-Flow model which predicts "fair" price, it's currently even today kinda underpriced (or undervalued), so according to your prediction of 1k - even if BTC will decide to take out all the bulls, how likely is it to go down to be that undervalued?
I mean even at 5k BTC will be undervalued by a valuation price of 2-halvings ago (let alone 1k), which sounds highly unlikely.
D4NKM4CH1N3
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This is what happens when you solely focus on TA and conduct zero FA. The market, the environment, the players are all different from when BTC was first created. To assume that prices will go back to when BTC was in its adolescence simply doesn't make sense. Way too much money at stake for BTC to go back to when it existed solely in the darkweb. But its a fun thought. I appreciate you looking out regardless.
WaTcHMe708
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How can u belive this. We maybe go to 20k but never ever ever to 1000$ again