** Cycle 1 **
Let's take it from the beginning. BTC's Cycle 1 made a Bottom on the November 07 2011 candle and it took 67 weeks/ bars (469 days) to reach the May 2011 All Time High ( ATH ). That 67 bar sequence printed a +1487% rise. That was Phase 1 of Bull Market of Cycle 1. The next ATH was on November 2013 around $1230. That was a +3591% rise and was 2.415 times greater than the previous one of 1487% (i.e. 1487% X 2.415 = 3591%). Make a note of 2.415 because it is a constant we will be using in the following Cycles. The duration of that Phase (Phase 2 we'll call it) from the end of Phase 1 to the new ATH , was 39 weeks/ bars (273 days).
Cycle 1 Summary:
Phase 1 (Cycle bottom until ATH test) = 67 weeks duration and +1487% rise
Phase 2 ( ATH test until Cycle top) = 39 weeks duration and +3591% rise (which is X 2.415 times the rise of Phase 1)
1st Constant = 2.415 (%rise of Phase 1 X 2.415 = %rise of Phase 2)
** Cycle 2**
The Phase 1 of Cycle 2 lasted 103 bars and posted a +618% rise. We now have our 2nd Constant. Notice that the duration of Phase 1 (103 bars) is 1.54 times the duration of the Phase 1 (67 bars) of the previous (Cycle 1) Cycle (67 bars X 1.54 = 103 bars/ weeks). Phase 2 (of Cycle 2) posted a +1492% rise which is well in accordance to our 1st Constant (2.415) as Phase 1 rise was 618% X 2.415 = 1492%. Additionally Phase 2 lasted 49 weeks. Take note now as this is our 3rd Constant. 49 weeks is X 1.25 times the duration of Phase 2 of the previous Cycle (Cycle 1) that was 39 week, i.e. 39 X 1.25 = 49.
Cycle 2 Summary:
Phase 1 = 103 weeks duration (67 weeks (Phase 1 of Cycle 1) X 1.54 (2nd Constant) = 103 weeks) and 618% rise (bottom to ATH ).
Phase 2 = 49 weeks duration (39 weeks (Phase 2 of Cycle 1) X 1.25 (3rd Constant) = 49 weeks) and 1492% rise (618% (% rise of Phase 1 Cycle 2) X 2.415 (1st Constant) = 1492%).
2nd Constant = 1.54 (duration of Phase 1 of previous Cycle X 1.54 = duration of Phase 1 of current Cycle).
3rd Constant = 1.25 (duration of Phase 2 of previous Cycle X 1.25 = duration of Phase 2 of current Cycle).
** Cycle 3 **
The Phase 1 of Cycle 3 is currently underway. Assuming the 2nd Constant is correct it should take 158 weeks (103 weeks (Phase 1 Cycle 2) X 1.54 (2nd Constant) = 158 weeks) until Phase 1 of Cycle 3 (current) tests the ATH of December 2017. That would be in December 2021. What we know for sure is that its rise from the December 2018 Bottom to the ATH test is +527%. So again assuming that the 1st constant is correct, the % rise of Phase 2 should be 1274% (527% (% rise of Phase 1 Cycle 3) X 2.415 (1st Constant) = 1274%). That puts the projected Top of the current (3rd) Cycle at $270000! That answers the "how much". The question of "when" is answered by the the 3rd Constant, which again assuming it is correct, Phase 2 of Cycle 3 should last 61 weeks (49 weeks (Phase 2 Cycle 2) X 1.25 (3rd Constant) = 61 weeks), which times the top on February 2023!
Cycle 3 Summary:
Phase 1 = 158 weeks duration (103 weeks (Phase 1 Cycle 2) X 1.54 (2nd Constant) = 158 weeks) and 527% rise (bottom to ATH ).
Phase 2 = 61 weeks duration (49 weeks (Phase 2 Cycle 2) X 1.25 (3rd Constant) = 61 weeks) and 1274% rise (527% (% rise of Phase 1 Cycle 3) X 2.415 (1st Constant) = 1274%).
** Conclusion **
So to sum it up, the answer to the questions that all BTCUSD investors seek (according to the above data which are based purely on Bitcoin's cyclical technical behavior) is that the Top of the current Cycle will be at $270000. However that won't come until February 2023. And to make things more agonizing for investors, the data show that the price won't reach the current ATH (roughly $20000) before December 2021!
Will that be a great prolonged accumulation period for Bitcoin or will add to the anxiety of holders? Is the $270000 overly optimistic or pessimistic? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Couple of comments:
Doesn't this contradict the Stock-to-Flow predictions in terms of timing for the 100k high?
You only have one observation point for the Phase 2 to Phase 1 duration (not that any of this would hold statistical checks).