Here is the BTC fib channel over the entire history. All I did was align it with the two tops and the 1 cent bottom in 2010. As you can see the fibs line up well with the action.
Interestingly the fibs are never ignored! Except during the bull runs in 2011, 2013 and Dec 2017.
During the bear phase we see that there is a bounce on every hit fib. We are due for a bounce in the next two weeks! Forget bears chanting 4k, they either don't know what they are talking about or are basically just stevepuri clones. Yes we can go to 4k but we should get a bounce first according to the laws of probability.
I predict three major scenarios:
- Green - bounce like 2011. We remain in current channel (red)
- Orange - bounce like 2015. We bounce but not enough to stay in the channel. We start moving slowly up the next channel.
- Red - we don't bounce. We will move in a long, slow arc toward the previous 2013 high, where will form a long flat bottom with possible return to 2017 ATH around 2024.
One last thing: if you look closely at the fib channel, you can see that the 2011 bubble starts and ends on the 0.5 fib. This is the same for the 2013 bubble. The 2017 bubble, such that it is (it is actually way smaller than the other two), started on the 0.236 fib in March 2017 and we are now returning to that same fib line.