Dont believe the hype, 3 technical reasons BTC is close to "end"
Guys, I have written about this before and I am going to keep writing about it again and again so that people understand the situation that is about to happen.
Everyone and their mother thinks that we are in a "SUPER CYCLE" or some crud like that. Wrong. We're not... Not yet anyways. This does NOT mean the end of BTC as we know it, I fully believe that in the very long run, BTC will actually go well above 100k... But small caveat, it will go BELOW 3k first...
Let's drill down to the key points because I am going to make this short and sweet. NOTE: please don't take too much out of the arrows, especially date wise. This is not meant to be date sensitive by any means, it just shows how price action will approximately look like.
1st technical reason: Major trendlines that had historically been our support, are now resistance since breaking below it. The same exact type of situation happened at 20k. When price met this support turned resistance line, it reacted violently. As you can see on the chart, we are also very close to the exact same type of situation.
2nd technical reason: The flag that was created from the previous 20k high, to the swing low of 3k created what's called a measured move. In this instance, we take the measurement of the lowest swing to the highest swing in the pattern and apply the measurement to where price broke out from the trendline of the flag. Again, we are inching closer and closer and closer to that MEASURABLE goal. My experience with this has been that it's not a perfect 1:1 ratio, meaning price usually tends to break above the measured goal somewhat before the reversal actually happens.
3rd technical reason: We are also inching closer and closer to a major fib reversal extension of 1.272 that was measured from the very first breakout of price from the blue channel to the top of the 20k ATH.
The worst of this is that according to how the accumulation Wyckoff models are lining up, price WILL go below 3k... Many many many people have called me stupid, crazy, and basically any adjective they can for their disapproval of my theory. But I'll keep hammering this to you... The yellow model, which is also an accumulation model inside of a larger accumulation model now has 4 separate points of confirmation. We are currently in the UT (upthrust) phase of it. What this means is that price has to retest and break below the floor of the initial start of it's trading range. The trading range started at 3k...
If you don't like that, take it up with Wyckoff... He is the one that created these models, and he is the one that became a wealthy man using it as well.
You're going to throw stuff like "You're dumb because BTC is used everywhere now. It's a completely different scenario. Times are different... BTC is being adopted everywhere... ETC ETC ETC. -Insert popular beliefs here-"
Guys, WE (as in retail) do NOT control the price of markets. We DO NOT. That is fact. It is controlled by large institutions it is manipulated by them, every measurable market is this way. You are not different, BTC is not different, period... And for some of you crypto boys, the only thing that will hurt your precious little feelings more than my theory that BTC will in fact fall below 3k, is that you're NOT in control. All you're doing is riding the institutional wave, that's it... But that institutional wave in which a ton of you are thinking we are in some "super cycle" will come to a very hard reversal sooner than many of you think.
Am I STILL bullish in the near term? YES... I believe price can go anywhere from mid 80k to even all the way to 100k before the reversal happens.
And another thing. Quit with the "Go ahead and short this, you'll get wrekt." responses. Nobody is saying to start shorting there. What I am implying is that if you have been accumulating Bitcoin for a while now, start taking your profits soon. Don't SHORT, but do take profit when we get into that 80k-100k range.
Everyone and their mother thinks that we are in a "SUPER CYCLE" or some crud like that. Wrong. We're not... Not yet anyways. This does NOT mean the end of BTC as we know it, I fully believe that in the very long run, BTC will actually go well above 100k... But small caveat, it will go BELOW 3k first...
Let's drill down to the key points because I am going to make this short and sweet. NOTE: please don't take too much out of the arrows, especially date wise. This is not meant to be date sensitive by any means, it just shows how price action will approximately look like.
1st technical reason: Major trendlines that had historically been our support, are now resistance since breaking below it. The same exact type of situation happened at 20k. When price met this support turned resistance line, it reacted violently. As you can see on the chart, we are also very close to the exact same type of situation.
2nd technical reason: The flag that was created from the previous 20k high, to the swing low of 3k created what's called a measured move. In this instance, we take the measurement of the lowest swing to the highest swing in the pattern and apply the measurement to where price broke out from the trendline of the flag. Again, we are inching closer and closer and closer to that MEASURABLE goal. My experience with this has been that it's not a perfect 1:1 ratio, meaning price usually tends to break above the measured goal somewhat before the reversal actually happens.
3rd technical reason: We are also inching closer and closer to a major fib reversal extension of 1.272 that was measured from the very first breakout of price from the blue channel to the top of the 20k ATH.
The worst of this is that according to how the accumulation Wyckoff models are lining up, price WILL go below 3k... Many many many people have called me stupid, crazy, and basically any adjective they can for their disapproval of my theory. But I'll keep hammering this to you... The yellow model, which is also an accumulation model inside of a larger accumulation model now has 4 separate points of confirmation. We are currently in the UT (upthrust) phase of it. What this means is that price has to retest and break below the floor of the initial start of it's trading range. The trading range started at 3k...
If you don't like that, take it up with Wyckoff... He is the one that created these models, and he is the one that became a wealthy man using it as well.
You're going to throw stuff like "You're dumb because BTC is used everywhere now. It's a completely different scenario. Times are different... BTC is being adopted everywhere... ETC ETC ETC. -Insert popular beliefs here-"
Guys, WE (as in retail) do NOT control the price of markets. We DO NOT. That is fact. It is controlled by large institutions it is manipulated by them, every measurable market is this way. You are not different, BTC is not different, period... And for some of you crypto boys, the only thing that will hurt your precious little feelings more than my theory that BTC will in fact fall below 3k, is that you're NOT in control. All you're doing is riding the institutional wave, that's it... But that institutional wave in which a ton of you are thinking we are in some "super cycle" will come to a very hard reversal sooner than many of you think.
Am I STILL bullish in the near term? YES... I believe price can go anywhere from mid 80k to even all the way to 100k before the reversal happens.
And another thing. Quit with the "Go ahead and short this, you'll get wrekt." responses. Nobody is saying to start shorting there. What I am implying is that if you have been accumulating Bitcoin for a while now, start taking your profits soon. Don't SHORT, but do take profit when we get into that 80k-100k range.