Guys, I have written about this before and I am going to keep writing about it again and again so that people understand the situation that is about to happen.
Everyone and their mother thinks that we are in a "SUPER CYCLE" or some crud like that. Wrong. We're not... Not yet anyways. This does NOT mean the end of BTC as we know it, I fully believe that in the very long run, BTC will actually go well above 100k... But small caveat, it will go BELOW 3k first...
Let's drill down to the key points because I am going to make this short and sweet. NOTE: please don't take too much out of the arrows, especially date wise. This is not meant to be date sensitive by any means, it just shows how price action will approximately look like.
1st technical reason: Major trendlines that had historically been our support, are now resistance since breaking below it. The same exact type of situation happened at 20k. When price met this support turned resistance line, it reacted violently. As you can see on the chart, we are also very close to the exact same type of situation.
2nd technical reason: The flag that was created from the previous 20k high, to the swing low of 3k created what's called a measured move. In this instance, we take the measurement of the lowest swing to the highest swing in the pattern and apply the measurement to where price broke out from the trendline of the flag. Again, we are inching closer and closer and closer to that MEASURABLE goal. My experience with this has been that it's not a perfect 1:1 ratio, meaning price usually tends to break above the measured goal somewhat before the reversal actually happens.
3rd technical reason: We are also inching closer and closer to a major fib reversal extension of 1.272 that was measured from the very first breakout of price from the blue channel to the top of the 20k ATH.
The worst of this is that according to how the accumulation Wyckoff models are lining up, price WILL go below 3k... Many many many people have called me stupid, crazy, and basically any adjective they can for their disapproval of my theory. But I'll keep hammering this to you... The yellow model, which is also an accumulation model inside of a larger accumulation model now has 4 separate points of confirmation. We are currently in the UT (upthrust) phase of it. What this means is that price has to retest and break below the floor of the initial start of it's trading range. The trading range started at 3k...
If you don't like that, take it up with Wyckoff... He is the one that created these models, and he is the one that became a wealthy man using it as well.
You're going to throw stuff like "You're dumb because BTC is used everywhere now. It's a completely different scenario. Times are different... BTC is being adopted everywhere... ETC ETC ETC. -Insert popular beliefs here-"
Guys, WE (as in retail) do NOT control the price of markets. We DO NOT. That is fact. It is controlled by large institutions it is manipulated by them, every measurable market is this way. You are not different, BTC is not different, period... And for some of you crypto boys, the only thing that will hurt your precious little feelings more than my theory that BTC will in fact fall below 3k, is that you're NOT in control. All you're doing is riding the institutional wave, that's it... But that institutional wave in which a ton of you are thinking we are in some "super cycle" will come to a very hard reversal sooner than many of you think.
Am I STILL bullish in the near term? YES... I believe price can go anywhere from mid 80k to even all the way to 100k before the reversal happens.
And another thing. Quit with the "Go ahead and short this, you'll get wrekt." responses. Nobody is saying to start shorting there. What I am implying is that if you have been accumulating Bitcoin for a while now, start taking your profits soon. Don't SHORT, but do take profit when we get into that 80k-100k range.
I have to say, as someone with up until now only basic education on charting, I find these Wyckoff charts quite interesting. Many charts appear too "simple" for me, drawing two channel lines and assuming an asset goes bullish as soon as it breaks resistance seems like grossly oversimplifying the matter to me. But as I said, I am talking out of my ass. Just wanted to let you know that I appreciate your ideas and I think it's good that you stand to your assessment of the situation, regardless of the pointless controversy it sparks. The only thing i'd suggest is that you do not take it too personal. You engage in pointless confrontation in your comments, wasting your time and nerves on something that amounts to zero relevance. Save your breath and concentrate on proving the validity of your model, i'd say. Anway, summa summarum: Thank you for your ideas, your last one brought me a nice chunk of money as I went long on 60.1 and realized at 62.6. Much appreciated, bro.
grahamgemmell
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I mean... imagine not taking profit after an 80% increase from this point in time... I think we have some late FOMO spikes into the 110k range because of humans being human, but a retrace makes sense. 3K absolutely seems extreme, but not impossible, and when you expect a correction, you hedge and wait. It's amazing that so many people I see talking about crypto and investment/trading think they're so rational, but get *so* angry when they see data that contravenes their beliefs.
This is really great analysis, and I'm curious to see how accurate it is. Time will always tell. Thanks!
blakajnaim
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i hope youre wrong big time the holw world is expeting to go over 1M
Zulu_Kilo
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@blakajnaim, that is EXACTLY why this thing is ready to fall back to Earth harder than tits on an old woman....
JoggyMac
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When I first read this... I was interested and fairly dismissive. Well... so far... being dismissive wasn’t a very good idea! My bad! Thank you for sharing. I’m determined to keep learning!
Xeptional
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The only thing that opposes me from believing this theory (which seems solid in theory) is that fundamentals are not taken in consideration. 1 example... Microstrategy and many other businesses that decided to put their balance sheet in BTC simply cannot allow a 70% retracement, it would put them out of business. I personally believe the extreme buying pressure (even now when the levels of fomo aren't even close to end 2017) prevents big corrections.
Institutional buying power, that was absent up until last year, is heavily underestimated.
But hey, time will tell for sure. Thanks for sharing.
Zulu_Kilo
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@robert84adeline83, thanks for the reply! Let me just give you a thought for good measure though... You accidentally said something that I really want you to think about. "Many other businesses that decided to put their balance sheet in BTC simply cannot allow a 70% retracement, it would put them out of business."
Think about that for a second. There are businesses out there that basically invested their company's money into an UNREGULATED entity. An entity that is HIGHLY volatile, it is absolutely manipulated and China above all has the single largest control over the asset because of mining.
So you're telling me that those institutions (or "intelligent operators" as Wyckoff calls them) that have likely invested billions into BTC early on and have no reason to take profit on a crazy price markup when they now KNOW that even businesses with large balance sheets have gone in on BTC?
If anything, this theory adds to my analysis. What happens when price corrects let's say 20%? Those businesses start disliking the fact that they are now starting to lose more and more by holding BTC. So they start selling off. This creates a larger selloff and has a ripple effect. Businesses let's say go bankrupt because they want "balls deep" in Bitcoin which is still largely unregulated.
What do you think the government is going to do with an asset, that just inflated by how many THOUSANDS of percent in ONE YEAR, that is highly unregulated and it caused businesses to fail... POSSIBLY even aggrivating a much broader market selloff?
Do you think they'll move to ban crypto?... I think there is a really good chance that the "reason" that will be given for this major fall (even though it has likely already been planned for and decided by institutions) is that it was banned by the governments.
And one day, when price is where it needs to be for institutions to once again invest dirt cheap (below 3k) at a wholesale level, somehow "magically" government will successfully regulate crypto and it will be back to the races once again for new all time highs.
I'm just saying, I'd watch for exactly that... I believe the only thing that can crash BTC below 3k is if government's around the world ban it... That's my theory on how that is going to be accomplished. As soon as you start seeing businesses fall under and go bankrupt because of BTC, it's going to get banned...
Xeptional
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@Zulu_Kilo, Hi I see where you're coming from but you still haven't changed my mind. My previous employer (BNY Mellon) who is the world's largest custodian is going all in on crypto custody, goldman sachs idem dito. Progressive countries in Europe like Liechtenstein, Malta and Estonia have legislation for crypto and crypto related companies. the 5th AML directive is mainly focusing on crypto regulation. To me, this sounds we're at the beginning and not even there yet.
Based upon previous price action and the current fundamentals I'd say BTC passes 250k this year.
Usually I bet a fine Whiskey with my friends on disagreements like this. How about we catch up at the end of the year and look back? If youre right (even a retracement below 20k) I promise to send you a nice Whiskey.
OfficialSkoL
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@Xeptional this could all be about time to unload ALL their bags for the 2k btc coming