1) Just realised that the % gain halves every 4 years..... In-line with the block-halvings....
2) The bull markets are getting longer. This is an indication of wider adoption/distribution, more on-ramps etc + the rise of derivatives is decreasing volatility and stretching out the time between troughs an d peaks.
3) Linked to #2 above; the RSI is topping out 'later' in each bull cycle, yet the final parabolic stage starts earlier and takes longer to climax.
4) The 100 MA (Thick Yellow Line) is proving to be bedrock support for ultra long-term trend-lines If this ever breaks, we can expect a prolonged bear market and the above chart invalidated. This is useful for identifying a bottom.
5) BTC does not have simple bottoms. It tends to scrap along the floor for 6 months during an accumulation period, like the one we entered Nov 2018.
6) The alligator as the 1st line crossed and is about to cross the 2nd line. Extrapolating this out, we can see the final 3rd line crossing in the same month the previous two accumulation cycles finished (month 8, or July 2019 in the current scenario).
7) Now until July will likely range between 3.2k and 5k. Likely bouncing off that 100MA again. This MA will finish July around 3500, which would be a great spring for August initial break-out and trend reversal confirmation.
8) A confirmed reversal on the monthly would be the golden ticket. Ie sell your house, kids, wife, liver etc and sit on your hands for 850-1100 days :)
thegarn
⋅
Hi Fran,
Thanks for this analysis.
I had already noticed point 1), plus 100% agree with point 8) :)
Ant (Nelson)
1) Just realised that the % gain halves every 4 years..... In-line with the block-halvings....
2) The bull markets are getting longer. This is an indication of wider adoption/distribution, more on-ramps etc + the rise of derivatives is decreasing volatility and stretching out the time between troughs an d peaks.
3) Linked to #2 above; the RSI is topping out 'later' in each bull cycle, yet the final parabolic stage starts earlier and takes longer to climax.
4) The 100 MA (Thick Yellow Line) is proving to be bedrock support for ultra long-term trend-lines If this ever breaks, we can expect a prolonged bear market and the above chart invalidated. This is useful for identifying a bottom.
5) BTC does not have simple bottoms. It tends to scrap along the floor for 6 months during an accumulation period, like the one we entered Nov 2018.
6) The alligator as the 1st line crossed and is about to cross the 2nd line. Extrapolating this out, we can see the final 3rd line crossing in the same month the previous two accumulation cycles finished (month 8, or July 2019 in the current scenario).
7) Now until July will likely range between 3.2k and 5k. Likely bouncing off that 100MA again. This MA will finish July around 3500, which would be a great spring for August initial break-out and trend reversal confirmation.
8) A confirmed reversal on the monthly would be the golden ticket. Ie sell your house, kids, wife, liver etc and sit on your hands for 850-1100 days :)