The weekly candle has closed below the weekly MA200, and that is a very sign.
Turns out, the people that hoped for an type correction were right after all. But ok, this is due to the unique macro-economic events that are basically
leading the whole world into a recession. Without that event, I think BTC would not have gone below the MA200.
In any case, this now means that the bearmarket will be long and brutal. And new all time highs will take a lot longer to unfold.
It means also that the longterm trend is NOT a sqrt any more. I drew by free hand a curved support line that somehow fits. This is not the old sqrt trend any more.
The support is around 1000. This means, we could even see BTC flash crash into 3 digit territory again. The low will happen in about 12 months plusminus a few months.
At least this will present an absolutely unique buying opportunity. Buying BTC around 1000 is a new chance for everyone that missed the boat in 2015-2017.
However, it will require a lot of patience, since the ATH will be reached in 2023, even early 2024 possible.
It will be some brutal years, if no miracle happpens. And by that I mean that by some miraculous event, the world markets recover, and everything is fine again, which let's be realistic
will not happen. Instead, we probably will see a brutal recession, duration around 2 years.
So yes, these are my current thoughts. This global crisis has destroyed the longterm btc growth trend. Many will be totally disillusioned, many will think BTC is dead. Even many old school
BTC people. Many will quit, like back in 2014-15. I still remember how almost everyone thought btc was done for. The same will happen again. Total disillusionment. And then suddenly,
no one will expect it any more, btc will rise again. And it will be EPIC.
The same thing was said back in 2014. Back when BTC collapsed from 1200 to 160. The confidence back then was completely gone. No one was still in the market who believed that bitcoin would rise again.
It is my firm belief that the confidence in a market MUST be destroyed, and all hobby investors and get rich quick types washed out, until a new uptrend can resume. This is what will happen this time also.
This is of course only valid as long as the number of transactions rises, therefore adoption continues. Which I think it will, since the underlying blockchain technology is extremely disruptive and grows exponentially.
As for the percentage of drop, it's not importnant if it crashes 87 or 95%. In 2011 it crashed also about 95%. BTC will survive this, too. And many people really will believe it's game over. Many many people will fold. That's when we will have reached the bottom.
Bitcoin SV is where the future party is at.