Declining since 2015...
Tops on HTF's
Closer look at the current Horn Top on a 2 Week chart
Broke down out of Ascending
5 Waves with correctives abiding by the rule of alternation- Wave 2 sharp decline, Wave 4 extended in breadth
Bitcoin likes the 886 level on L/MTF's, note the level
Below DHMA's on the Weekly
Some Yearly chart levels to be aware of
Fibonacci Time sequence on this Weekly chart has been correct 6 times so far for trend reversals since ATH , the next Weekly date in the sequence is Monday 7/22/2019, and the following date is 7/20/2020.
Now that you have seen all of this take into consideration the current perspective of Bitcoin by the US government; while Wall Street desires to take advantage of a new market they will not do so without proper regulation in place...but anyone can create an Altcoin. Any company can create a "crypto" as we have seen Facebook attempt to do so with Libra (not an actual cryptocurrency). You can look to the list of 100 members of the board of Calibra for companies desperate to also take advantage of new money in, to them, a new untapped market. There are also investigations into Bitfinex and Bitmex happening, Beaxy having been hampered buy low since opening, and Bakkt test launch of . The last time a product for BTC debuted it was the very beginning of the 2018 Bear Market. Also take the irrationality of the market right now, with maximalists calling for $30k, $50k, and plenty higher talking about the Moon- last time the market was like this? December 2017. Now, I do not believe that Libra will debut anytime soon, the reason why it is being greeted with government resistance is that Congress hates Facebook , and the reason why Wall Street and CNBC have been hyping Libra is because they are heavily invested in Facebook , but I do believe that we will see in influx of new Altcoins with an Altseason of epic proportions between 7/22/2019 and 7/20/2020. What happens after that can only be assessed at that time. I am not saying that Bitcoin will reach lows in the 3-digits but I do believe that Bitcoin will enter a Bear Market/year long consolidation period, beginning week of 7/22/2019...
On the Weekly price is being suppressed by the 8-Day HMA...
The 20-Day HMA is pushing down on the 3Day chart...
and the Daily shows a rejection off the 60-Day HMA...
Daily RAVI has also crossed below zero for the first time after an extended positive rise since January 2018.
I anticipate a continued consolidation with sell pressure over the following weeks with a break down to the 60-Day HMA on the Weekly at @ 8600.
An exhaustion of buying does seem to be in the works now...
Rejection of the 175-Day HMA on the Daily which is also the same level as the 60-Day HMA on the 3Day chart
A closer look shows price getting pushed up out of a Descending Wedge with built up bullish divergence on Stochastic RSI and and a Double Bottom Bullish Divergence on the RSI with the 200-Day Hull Moving Average piercing through price action-just as it did January 7th of 2018
The 4Hour is below the 8/20/60-Day and the the 60 has flipped bearish
And it has broken back down out of the Ascending Broadening Wedge causing me to believe that the move back up after breaking down the first time was a throwback/whipsaw and a continuation down should ensue toward the 11,100 area to start
The drop could happen sooner than expected to bring the Weekly down for a more Bearish close, as price is also being pushed down by the 8 DMA
Low TF bearish divergences are already in play with an official Bearish Cross of the 60- (blue) and 200-Day HMA (orange).
Lookng to 10,550 next
Supports below here are the Weekly 60-Day HMA @9300 followed by the 3Day 175-Day HMA @7300
While the 3Day still points to the downside with the 8 and 20 DHMA's pushing down...
Then allow me to clarify something about Bitcoin...
Then I'll show you this...
I think its possible we range a bit longer here as bulls are determined to continue longing and getting liquidated... most likely mid-October for the 60-Day HMA (blue) and the 175-Day HMA (orange) to Bear Cross
Price has moved below the 60-Day HMA on the Weekly...
With only the 3Day 175-Day HMA at 8763...
And the Monthly 20-Day HMA at 7203 below it for support
These numbers are not perfect but it is a harmonic pattern that would be followed by a bearish breakdown...still early to tell. My overall analysis has not changed.
4 million BTC in 2013 at ~210 USD = 840,000,000 USD volume!
0.4 million BTC in 2019 at ~9500 USD = 3.8 Billion USD !!!
You see? The analysis about the volume is wrong.
That what I can also see is that the volatility is much higher the previous years which means that the BTC volume should be higher too.
Thanks for sharing your chart and your work! Keep it up!