I've put together three ideas for BTC on the larger TF now that I have been made aware of the BLX historical BTC data and can get a count that makes sense. In fact, I can get three counts that make sense... all with relatively the same outcomes until the end, where they will drastically differ.
First idea, BTC as a regular impulsive series for all of the upmoves - the last bullrun was Wave-5 of Wave-1 and we are currently on Wave-B of B of 2.
Second Idea, similar to the first idea, however, the bullrun seemed... quite different from the initial waves on BTC, and so I wonder if it was actually a bullish B wave in a running flat type of situation. We currently would be also in Wave-B of B of 2 in that situation, Wave-C would likely be more bearish than the first. Wave-1 would have been an extended Wave-1, leading to decreasing size of Waves-3 and Wave-5.
Final idea, BTC as a bearish diametric. We currently are probably in Wave-E for that one, with significant down moves if this is the case (hoping it isn't, it will be a long time before we get another bullrun if that is the case and we will cut MUCH lower most likely.
My favourites would definitely be the impulsive series charts, but only time will tell I guess on where we are heading. Targets super inaccurate and just meant for illustration purposes.
Let me know what you guys think and if you have any reasoning to suggest one is correct over the others, I haven't rigorously checked monowave counts/sizes/times, etc, so there might actually be one that reigns supreme over the others, these are just the three ideas that overall stand out to me as the most likely.
It's looking like December of 2023 will be a brutal time for BTC and we can expect the beginning of the real correction (Wave-C of C (idea 1) or Wave-C (idea 2) or Wave-F (idea 3)) around that time.
Comment
⋅
That should be December 2022 as dump time for BTC, we'll be well on our way on December 2023.
Comment
⋅
One more thing I just wanted to draw attention to to support this is the massive bearish divergence we have been accumulating since June 2011. I cannot stress it enough... this is not going to be the real bullrun, I will be totally shocked if it is. We quite possibly will make one more, increasingly bearish high (slightly above the current ath only) and then it will be over.
Comment
⋅
Can see the decelerating arc on BTC, just reaching a critical tipping point before reversing fully tradingview.com/x/JL7EWG6U/.
Comment
⋅
Last thing to point out, the yellow dashed line is approximately the BTC halving, so we should see the move up to the ath right around then begin.
Comment
⋅
Also, I suppose if that arc says anything, 30k is a possibility for the ath, but I'd doubt higher.
I have shared an extremely similar view to this since April 2018. I saw a drop to 4,000 coming from the 2018 descending triangle where it would bounce into a new bull run. It would run to 20-30k, and be rejected and crash from this zone. The more time that has gone on, the more I believe It will not play out this way because I had believed it would fall due to government bans and what not. Do you believe this will just play out as a bubble? A bitcoin climax double top pattern never seen before? Or is this caused by major FUD? I have a hard time believing this will happen nowadays if cryptocurrency ends up going mainstream. It looks like it is heading that way nowadays more than ever.
Korastiz
⋅
@V3ntur3_86, I think about what could cause something like this to actually crash and I really am just not sure. I really do have a hard time wrapping my head around this kind of price action for pretty similar reasons as you'd mentioned... just seems impossible.
But I suppose bans could happen... countries like China are pushing for a national cryptocurrency right now, so others may go that route as well. Another coin could end up taking BTCs place potentially (I've been keeping a very close eye on BCH, it's chart is very interesting I think) for whatever reason.
Just not sure right now beyond what look like potentials on the charts, BTC could be reaching its end and alts become more important.