This is a very short but quite informative for long-term investors study. I'm using the MA Multiplier on the BLX to grasp Bitcoin's 1W action since the early stages.
As you see on every single Cycle, every time the Multiple 1 was hit, the market top/ All Time Highs (ATH) didn't take to long to be achieved. It is interesting to point out that the Multiple 1 was reached every time roughly on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous ATH. This marked the start of the final phase of Bitcoin's Bull Cycle and the Parabolic Rise, and in fact during the previous Cycle's only gave a couple of pull-back opportunities.
Since the Multiple 1 has already been hit this year, this suggests that only is BTC entering the Final Phase of the Parabola, but also that there aren't many strong pull-back opportunities left for those who haven't entered yet.
The Cyclical Top/ new ATH has been historically achieved on Multiple 2. That not only happens to be around the 2.382 Fib extension from the previous ATH but also within a zone/ band lower than the previous on the Fibonacci Channel (orange Channel/ trend-lines). The 2.382 Fib ext is around $288000 and that is comfortably placed within one Fib Channel Band lower than the previous within 1.-0.786.
Do you agree that BTCUSD is entering the final phase of this Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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This is a great one... I am looking forward to it, hopefully.
Namaste.
getinformedme
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@alanmasters, Namaste
WhooperSwan
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Great analysis, tx! There were some comments about the ultimate target even though that was not the point of your analysis. I just want to point out that a value for a fib extension like 2.382 is very sensitive to the inputs, ie. the 0 and 1 fib levels. You gave only some rough values as inputs but if you give real values for BLX (3148.33 and 19764.51) then your 2.382 fib extension value is 250 295.86 (not 288k). For Bitstamp data the 2.382 extension would be very close to BLX, 250 124.46. For BTCUSDT (Binance) data 250 455.59. I would say that 250k is a fair estimate for the 2.382 extension but whether that’s going to be the peak, that is another story. Thanks again. Cheers mate.
CarpeMomentum
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Very interesting view and stats. Yes I would agree the final stage is here. The target zone you have marked is in an astronomical zone and with 288k being a well argued for target here.
Thanks for this analysis. It gives a sound reason for a) the stages and b) the target zone and an indication when to exist cycle.
TradingShot
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@CarpeMomentum, You're welcome CM. Let's enjoy this final stage for as long as it lasts (could be anywhere between 6 and 12 months). 300k may seem astronomical to common sense but according to most models it is the conservative target.
Excellent stepping back for the big picture. I'm a long an unfortunately didn't enter early enough (though I have tried) so am primarily in derivatives and 'other' methods of purchase like PayPal, eToro, Robinhood, etc. I'm sure many people got caught off guard after the January dump though in hindsight I should have been leaning in, the month escaped me. That said, nobody wants to be held accountable so even from the better analysts they say, 'I wouldn't be buying at this level' and ultimately that's what left me out in the cold in January. I would say to other investors like me, as long as you are aware of the risk and you are focused on the end goal, enter at any level - just take a level-headed approach like an incremental entry a day. Regarding a top, nobody knows for sure just draw your own charts even if they are super basic. The big picture moves on Bitcoin are fairly easy to identify.
Namaste.