Hey, here is a quick update to my BTC macro chart. Yes, it has been difficult being a bear and getting ridiculed on the move up to these price levels. What you have to understand is that market movements are designed to squeeze every last drop of blood out of people who might see the macro picture clearly but are slightly inaccurate with the details. So many bears have been liquidated without BTC seeing a correction even to the 38.2% Fib level. Yes, 12.5k was not the top but it does not change anything in the big picture. We have to see whether the whales will allow this double top at 13.8k to confirm. If they do, then what would be more bearish than watching BTC crawl back up to 13.8k for one and a half years and getting a double top rejection.
However, if we do push higher then the next level to watch is 14.7k which would be a third retest of the macro support turned resistance line and a one to one uptrend extension of the move from 3k. Yes, things need to be readjusted on the chart but you cannot determine the exact angle of this macro channel before our top is confirmed. Also, the fractal leaves a lot up to interpretation. Luckily, my 12K shorts are low leverage and they are a small percentage of my portfolio so I have a lot of capital to add from my war chest. Therefore, I have just been laddering up my short position until we top out. There has been no bull market with a move of this magnitude not correcting back to the 38.2-61.8% Fib level so the more fuel the bulls pile up, the bigger the explosion will be.
Bear in mind that we also have two unfilled weekly CME gaps and two unfilled 4h CME gaps all the way down to 3.5k.
Let's see what happens. See you in a future update!
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This market is crazy. The next meaningful resistances are 17.8k (88.6% Fib) and 19k (weekly close). If those get disrespected as well and break then we will obviously go to ATH. Keep in mind that our last weekly close was below the 78.6% Fib.
You should a have clearer falsifiable thesis. We are at 15.6k, what were your liq readings on those shorts? Your analysis seems to force reality into your model rather than guide it. No hate, but seems disingenuous. While a retraction here or at 17.3k would be of no surprise given 30% corrections are natural in a bull run..how can you possibly risk manage with shifting the goalposts in absence of falsifiability
Smadis
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@phantom91, No liq readings on my shorts yet (not like I want to jinx it though). I added a lot of margin and new shorts to take my liq prices above 20k because it still seems like we will visit much lower numbers again. I am still incredibly bearish. Just look at this scammy rally being driven up by ever-descending volume. Right now it seems to be forming a bearish gartley pattern with the first top being at the 61.8% Fib (June 2019 high) and then the current top at the 78.6% Fib. Could be invalidated so we have to see how the weekly closes. No offense, but please don't accuse me of being disingenuous. I did not think we would pump this high but it is not like I ever wanted to harm my followers or knowingly spread misinformation. Everybody makes mistakes in trading. Yes, goal posts needed to be shifted but there is an ultimate invalidation point and that is if we break 20k. We are now forming yet another incredibly unhealthy parabolic blow-off top that has yet to even see a 38.6% retracement. Even a healthy and bullish 61.8% retracement would take us all the way down to 8600 as of now. Let that sink in for a moment.
Bro why you are still bearish? Why not change your bias? This bull run looks exactly similar to 2017. In 2017 Price went from 1k to 20k. This time maybe we go from 10k to 100k. Just follow the charts. Ignore all the noise. Technical Analysis is far more superior then fundamental analysis. Retracements are not always healthy and its not necessary.
Smadis
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@Girrad, This looks nothing like 2017 except for how this will end (we went from 20k to 3k then). First of all, we had multiple long accumulation periods at different zones and deep corrections to the 61.8-78.6 Fib before we broke our previous ath at 1k. This thing has been pumping up parabolically without a correction since March. Mark my words, this will not end well. Even if we pierce 20k, this thing needs to come down hard. We have gone through a huge zone without building liquidity or support there and the path down is riddled with CME gaps. We are incredibly far from all meaningful moving averages. The volume is in continuous decline. I am doing TA not fundamental analysis. This kind of price action is bullish short term but incredibly unhealthy after it tops out. If you draw a channel for this current move, it is incredibly narrow and almost vertical. No move like this in BTC's history has ended well. At the very least a correction to the 61.8% Fib which is currently in the 9ks is coming sooner or later.