As the new Bull Market progresses, Bitcoin has left few questions unanswered. One of those has to do with its historic tendency to touch the 0.17 Fibonacci retracement level before the Halving during its 2nd accumulation phase.
But let's take this from the beginning. Each BTC cycle is divided into 5 phases:
* After each All Time High (ATH) and market top the price declines rapidly as it enters the Bear Market.
* After forming a bottom, the price starts to consolidate (1st Accumulation phase) as it accumulates buyers on what is a bargain price
* Then we witness the first rise (expansion) as more retail buyers join those who bought at the bottom.
* The price then accumulates again (2nd Accumulation phase) as it is preparing for the Halving.
* Finally the Halving paves the way to the final Strong Bull phase that leads to a new market top.
We are currently on the 2nd Accumulation phase as Bitcoin has been consolidating for nearly 3 months since June's 13,700 High. This seems to be natural as it is in line with the historic "Pre-Halving" consolidation.
The question that remains is this: Will it fill the 0.17 Fibonacci retracement which is currently near $6000? It might but at the same time, the hyper strong support provided by the historic Parabolic Channel (indicated on the chart by the dashed curve) can issue a bounce before reaching that level. In essence, the longer Bitcoin consolidates above $9000 within its current Triangle, the fewer chances it has to approach $6000 eventually.
What does this mean for us long term investors/ traders? It means that with time such a pull back becomes more unlikely but if it happens it will be the last great bargain price before the new (3rd) Halving initiates the Strong Bull Run into the new market peak, as it will be extremely unlikely that we will ever see those low levels again.
But what do you think? Do you think $9000 will hold and take us sideways towards the Halving or we will get that $6000 bargain buy? Feel free to comment, like and sharing your own chart with me!
I am starting to see that this is actually necessary in order to fuel the bull run in a way so it will not collapse. By doing this you are ensuring fuel by empying weak hands and bringing the price low enough after the expansion to provide confirmation for all long and strong and allowing the rest of the bulls to get long and strong via all the orders from weak hands letting them go. I have been understanding the logic better, i hope i am on track, lmk if anything you can add
TradingShot
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@sekler718, Thank you for the colorful and very detailed analysis.
prefabsprout
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No. Everyone is short. Everyone will make so much money at the expense of the whales who own the vast majority of the corn; if BTC takes a serious drop, public interest (which is nil at best) will take a further dive the whales can't allow. It's not that great to have acquired all of an imaginary money worth zero.
So they're forced into this weird spot of keeping the corn fairly stagnant and hoping the market cap goes up. Until then they can't allow it to swing to wildly either way.
CSCduarte
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@prefabsprout, but cant we assume whales made already their billions and bitcoin is shit and they make it go to zero? thanks
kardia
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@Meirinho30, not if they really believe fiat is doomed. Sure, they have gold and silver to fall back on, but how risky and difficult is it going to be to carry that stuff around to make purchases. Lol
It’s hard to say.
Firstly I was more on the bearish side because of the falling triangle and the 9k support will be broken after multiple tests. But the problem is is that so many people are seeing this as a situation what will happen and to many people think we will fill this gap and get to 8/7k. Because of these people I’m now leaning more to the bullish side and I’m accumulating more Btc on this price range and I’m not waiting for the lower price.