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Here is a great tool for illustrating macro BTC moves - Bitcoin Log Growth Curves. This tool did amazing job in pointing out the tops and bottoms. Now we see that the price reached the bottom line of this Logarithmic channel, which is sitting at 7.6k, and, historically speaking, this must be the low.
If we lost this tremendous support, the market structure would be completely broken!
If 7.6k does not hold on the weekly basis, there are two outcomes I am looking for: 1) a full retrace and printing a slightly lower low at ~6300 2) going all the way down to MA200 (currently sitting at 5.5k) Both scenarios are devastating for Moon Boys who have been counting on a new All-Time High before the halving. Either way, this is going to be the Greatest Buying Opportunity to prepare for the upcoming Bull Run.
Remark: The macro economic environment is crazy these days and first of all we need to see the stock market bottoming out and reversing in order to consider that the ultimate low before the halving is in. The world economy is dealing with a Black Swan right now and this factor can play a tricky thing
Let’s take a look at BTC daily chart and figure out why 7.6k is important
7.6k is the breakout level of January 2020 + 0.236 Fib and we just tested it Yesterday’s daily candle closed like a reversal hammer candle confirmed with the biggest volume since January 14th. Moreover, we managed to close the daily above the last high volume node on VPVR
And also there was a small CME Gap at 7670 and we filled that Gap
Now look at this weekly chart A HUGE triangle formation can be drawn using the tops and bottoms and coincidentally the BTC Halving is to occur in the apex of the triangle.
Another point is that if we go lower than 7.5k, we’ll break down that very critical support Trendline and in addition that potential huge inverted Head & Shoulders pattern will get invalidated.
Conclusion: BTC must hold 7.6k as the final low before the halving, otherwise things will get very nasty.
What do you think about it? Share your thoughts in the comments!
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7.6k didn't hold and like I was expecting we followed the second scenario and reached the vicinity of EMA200 & MA200 on the weekly
Thanks Cryptobullet great work !
"Here is a great tool for illustrating macro BTC moves - Bitcoin Log Growth Curves. This tool did amazing job in pointing out the tops and bottoms."
Could you please let me know how I can display this on my trading view the Log growth curves with the lines - Thank you
@CryptoBullet, I don't think MY FRIEND will mind here...
Most of these 'chartists' around here are amateurs and they're gonna end up costing the retail traders around here a lot of money.
MarketAnalysis-
Insane, below $20 a barrel huh.. Makes sense if they really are trying to prolong this battle. Do you have any positions in oil related stocks?
Thats my worry about BTC, always did have in my mind this downtrend from 20k will extend into 2021 with a new low. I recall you bought BTC around 1K, to do so I would imagine you have some faith in BTC longer term due to its interesting characteristics?
Also, do you have reasoning as to why BTC is overpriced at 5k? My own analysis tells me, from a production perspective, the biggest / most efficient miners are mining it for dirttt cheap despite what most people think ($<2000 / BTC). So I can see why you would think that
MarketAnalysis-
On another note, how do we differentiate this oil "war" with the one in 2014, where oil dropped 30-40%?
mackbrown
I don't have any positions in oil because I'm still kind of waiting for a 'knee jerk' bailout from the Trump Administration to try and bail out the shale industry... As soon as that happens, which may give a short lived bump, I'll probably go in short... That said, I might start entering LONGS down around $22 and add to those positions until a bottom is finally reached... Reason? this play by the Saudi's & Russians can't get dragged out too long... I say June max... Plus, at that point, the larger US oil companies with big balance sheets will start buying up all the shale assets on the cheap... Anyway, it'll be an interesting few months in the oil sector...
mackbrown
The oil war (2014 vs. now) is actually mostly the same... The 'difference' is that in 2014, the US shale speculation was not online... As such, they took on a lot of debt to get it rolling... That debt is now going to crush them at these lower prices and there will be many bankruptcies... The Russians and Saudis can ride this out... US shale can't... It'll eventually normalize... OIL will be a GREAT BUY at $20...
mackbrown
Also ~ BTC will be a GREAT BUY at 1k... But these clown 'chartists' have no clue about that... Mostly ~ nobody has considered what is going to happen TECHNICALLY with BTC when it goes below its 200WEEK moving agerage... I think that's somewhere around 5.4k right now... There's no doubt in my mind that that level will be tested because ZERO institutional money is going into BTC until it passes these tests... So ~ if it breaks below, which I believe, then there's nothing but air underneath and the chart will go back to VERY LONG TERM technical levels... 1K sounds about right...
mackbrown
The only reason, in my mind, right now that BTC & especially ALTS have not crashed already is that I believe there are a LOT of whales trapped long... This corona virus thing blindsided them and they had expected to be able to dump to bagholders at higher prices... So, now they're being forc
mackbrown
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mackbrown
The only reason, in my mind, right now that BTC & especially ALTS have not crashed already is that I believe there are a LOT of whales trapped long... This corona virus thing blindsided them and they had expected to be able to dump to bagholders at higher prices... So, now they're being forced to DRIP DRIP DRIP it down because you can't
CryptoBullet
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@mackbrown, It's been a nice read. Thanks for sharing
@cb ~ I wish you (& your charts) well... When BTC eventually bottoms at 1K or so... I probably won't make a flippin PEEP thereafter because I don't dispute your CHARTING SKILLS... In fact, at that moment ~ I'll probably STFU and rely on your charts to BTFD...
But, for now, LISTEN 2 me HOMES... This thing is breaking down before your eyes...
That's a WEIRD thing to say exactly in this moment, because, within the next 24 hours, I 100% expect a FISCAL PACKAGE to be announced by the Trump administration which could shoot the S&P back up 10-15% or more within the next few weeks... That would give a BUMP to cryptos (for a bit ~ whereby the F&G index is at 16 right now)...
But its not the end of the story... Frankly ~ I have ZERO trading money on CRYPTO exchanges right now to play a trade (& pay commissions on the trade), when you could play the VOLATILITY FOR FREE in leveraged oil, equity, and FOREX markets...
It's MATH ~ my friend...
You're charting in a world where 20% crypto moves are the casino (with high unpredictability)... DEEPER oil, equity, bond, & forex markets offer a MUCH HIGHER (zero fee) alternative in this moment...
IOW~ You're trying to sell PREMIUMS in shrimp prices at at the local fish dock...
mackbrown
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@CryptoBullet, probably ~ within the next 24 hours or so, MAYBE LESS... The S&P is going to print a temporary low... Maybe even, a 'stimulus package' will get announced which will mean EXACTLY NOTHING, except that they will juice equity markets from OVERSOLD territory...
As such, BTC might bounce here (at a 16 F&G index)... But make no mistake... SELL THE RIP... BTC will go to 1k... Sell to the whales and FORGET these amateur chartists... PRESERVE YOUR CAPITAL...
@CryptoBullet, Sooner or later CB ~ you're gonna adopt a MACRO picture and understand what I'm saying... I LIKE YOU... I think the thought & detail that you put into your charts is very good...
But ~ these perspectives that you're still CHARTING UPON are based upon a different paradigm... CHART MACROS WILL PROBABLY NOT BREAK HERE, but will, eventually)... It won't be today or tomorrow (& maybe not even until June or July ~ hard to say)... Whats important is to understand the RISK/REWARD...
You're MODELING... I'm being generous here... are 15-20% upswings [in cryptos], versus 80-90&% down moves... NO TRADER IN THEIR RIGHT MIND would follow that concept... You'd do better to use your CHARTING skills in the WTI market right now... GREATER REcfrude nmodel BOTTOMWARD... Less RISK... & what the you now what would you care anyway because, probably, when the crude model BOTTOMS [as it did EXACTLY, in 2014, with the last major BTC bottom], you could flip and go long BTC and be back to being a crypto BULL chartist... You'd be a HERO!!!
Me? I'm not a HERO... I don't care what anybody thinks about me... I just want to trade EXACTLY what's in front of my face...
Such as... I SOLD ALL MY LEVERAGED SHORTS on the S&P today at 3:10 (it was something like 1720 but it doesn't even really matter) ... I have private conversations with 'folks' on Trading View to document this... I'm NOT CONCERNED with 'ticking' the low, but I just don't want to go to sleep tonight after the cash close, wondering if TRUMPs gonna lay out a fiscal stimulus package... I TOOK MY MONEY & now I just wait until the next news feed... I'm GONNA SLEEP TONIGHT...
For tonight... let me just say... BTC whales are absolutely PRAYING TO GOD right now for a BTC bounce so they can dump on your BTFD readers... This may last 3 weeks or so... After whatever TECHNICAL LEVEL you can conjure up in that time reaches its expiry...WHAT THEN?... Sorry ~ I haven't even calibrated those levels yet because I'm STILL waiting for the 1st BOTTOM to happen in the S&P... & actually, there's more, & more predictable money to be made playing SPOOZ option puts & calls in this moment than there is to paying premium commissions in crypto markets trying to pay LESS GAMMA moves...
if you don't understand what I mean when I say LESS GAMMA... Then you (or your your followers), will probably end up getting carried out of the market ON YOUR SHIELDS sooner or later...
Good Luck!
faugusto1983
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@mackbrown, you are probably right, in the long term crypto speculation is just that, empty speculation that has to break down at some point. Why do you only coment on bitcoin posts?
SpaceCatZ
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@mackbrown, Everytime Btc'c price drops there is a guy or 2 come up with doomsday theories like yourself. Why is the point of comparing oil to virtual currency?
"Here is a great tool for illustrating macro BTC moves - Bitcoin Log Growth Curves. This tool did amazing job in pointing out the tops and bottoms."
Could you please let me know how I can display this on my trading view the Log growth curves with the lines - Thank you