CryptoEngineering
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Are you a BTC investor (not trader) ? This post is a gold mine !

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
The post has been my masterpiece since 2016

It is a really long one and not for everyone, kinda a summary of my 3 years Trading Knowledge and forecast of Bitcoin's future movement!

Who am I? I have been trading in crypto since November 2016 . Seen many shit coins , seen many big pumps and epic dumps.
Made money , Lost money. However, I always focused to improve myself. Started to share my knowledge on trading view since October 2018.

I read 10+ trading books from Jesse Livermore to Jack Schwager , I examined stock tables, I inspected thousands of charts. As I studied them I began to learn things about crypto / stock movements which I had not seen before.I started to realize that crypto movements were not completely haphazard.

You're here because you've completed some research and are starting to understand the opportunity and potential that cryptocurrency has! 99.9% of people do not invest in cryptocurrency because they've never heard of it, or don't understand it!
When the general public starts to invest, the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will sky rocket, meaning potentially really high returns to early investors.

My best 5 strategies / advice for you below before analyzing BTC' s past performance.

1 ) Less is more! Don’t use more than 3 – 5 indicators at the same time. Pick 4H or 1 day on the chart !
Trend lines , Moving Averages and Chart patterns etc. Drawing lines are the most important indicators in any market.

2 ) The second thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea.

3 ) Be so picky who to follow in the market! Over 80% are people are loser. Don’t follow the crowd. ( Hamada Mark is the only trader that I always try not to miss his posts, Dlavrov , DianKemala are also good traders. )

4 ) Weekly open –close above MA 20 ( bullish trend )
Weekly open –close below MA 50 ( Bearish trend )

Super Bullish : The candle is above MA 20 ( Daily )
Bullish : MA 50 Above MA 100 ( Daily )
Bearish : MA 50 below MA 100 ( Daily )

If it breaks the daily trend line with a strong candle, it is the easiest buy / sell signal.

5 ) Last but not least you should always keep the ratio below

30 - 40 % BTC
40 - 50 % ALT
10 - 30 % USD

Let's start it.


The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason. The stock market is governed by a set of two principles: supply and demand ; and fear and greed. Both are based on human nature, and human nature doesn't change. In a bear market, all stocks are taken down. Greed gives way to fear, and investors can't sell fast enough. But the smart money sees value in the best stocks and will begin accumulating shares, bidding these stocks up. So, when the market hits bottom, some of these stocks will have already built bases and are back near highs. They get ready to break out and rush to new highs, leading the way once a new bull market begins. And these bases have certain characteristics that show up repeatedly in market cycle after market cycle

The summary of 2011 - 2013

93% down from ATH
When the candle was below MA 20, BTC dropped extra 77.57%.
When the candle was below MA 50, BTC dropped extra 58.95%.
MA 50 was above MA 20 for 217 days, Then Bull season is started again.
After MA 50 passed MA 20 , The candle failed to stay above MA 50 at the first try and BTC dropped 46% . The Bull season started at the second try.
The candle was touched MA 100 for a short time, BTC stayed almost always above MA 100.
It took 623 days to break ATH again.
Bull season starts when BTC is above MA 20 on a weekly chart ( and MA 20 passes MA 50 )
Bear season starts when BTC is below MA 20 on a weekly chart

Best time to buy?
MA 20 passes MA 50 and The candle is above MA 20 AT $6!
THE LOWEST LEVEL IS FIB 0.236!

The summary of 2013 – 2017

85% down from ATH
When the candle was below MA 20, BTC dropped extra 72% until ATL .
When the candle was below MA 50, BTC dropped extra 68% until ATL
MA 50 was above MA 20 for 427 days, Then Bull season is started again.
After MA 50 passed MA 20 , The candle failed to stay above MA 50 at the first try and BTC dropped 36% ( BTC was also below MA 100 ) . The Bull season started at the second try.

After MA 100 passed MA 50, The candle failed to pass above MA 20 at the first try and BTC dropped 8%. It passed in a month!

The candle was below MA 100 for 357 days. BTC dropped extra 54% until ATL
It took 1134 days to break ATH again.
Bull season starts when BTC is above MA 20 on a weekly chart ( and MA 20 passes MA 50 )
Bear season starts when BTC is below MA 20 on a weekly chart

Best time to buy?
MA 20 passes MA 50 and The candle is above MA 20 AT $285!
THE LOWEST LEVEL IS FIB 0.5!


2017 – 2020

84% down from ATH . ( It will be 93 % down if BTC dropped to $1350 )
When the candle was below MA 20, BTC dropped extra 67% until ATL . ( It will be 77 % down if BTC dropped to $2350 )
When the candle was below MA 50, BTC dropped extra 58% until ATL . ( It will be 68% down if BTC dropped to $2450 )

So, what does it mean to us if history repeats itself?

BTC will go up to $4100- 4200, Then it will drop to $3700 - $3800.
From this level , It will go up to $5800 - $6200, Then it will drop to $3200- $4000 !!!

THE LOWEST LEVEL IS FIB 0.236 ( $2175 ) or FIB 0.5 (3250 - Touched)

I really respect Metcalfe's Law ( https://charts.bitcoin.com/btc/chart/met... , https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-value-t... ) on Bitcoin chart. It shows that Bitcoin will drop to $1200- $1350. Otherwise, I am optimistic as long as we dont see a new ATL , I am not targeting Fib 0.236 ( $2175 ) , $2350 or $2450 at the moment. However, I am expecting to see $3200 - $3600 again a couple of times.

So, What should you do?

I am strongly advising to collect BTC & TOP 20 alt coins while BTC is between $3200 - $3600 . Stay FIAT if We drop below $3200. The Bull season starts when BTC is above MA 20 on a weekly chart ( and MA 20 passes MA 50 ) . Date? ( SEPTEMBER 2, 2019 - November 4, 2019)

No one has a crystal ball for the Crypto market , but what we do have to look at is history. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, when it comes to the Bitcoin ’s current situation, history shows some alarming parallels.


FINAL NOTE :

When bear markets are near the bottom, the great majority of advisory letters will usually be bearish . Near market tops, most will be bullish . The majority is usually wrong when it’s most important to be right. Never fight the market—it’s bigger than you are.
The key to staying on top of the crypto market is not predicting or knowing what the market is going to do. It’s knowing and understanding what the market has actually done in the past several weeks and what it is currently doing now.


Today it’s not enough for you to just work and earn a salary. To do the things you want to do, go the places you want to go, and have the things you want to have in your life, you absolutely must save and invest intelligently. The income from your investments and the net gains you can make will let your each your goals and provide real security. No one can hold you back but yourself. To be successful you always have to be one step ahead of everyone else.


***Nothing shared or published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content provided by me be relied upon for any investment activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.This is not trading advice, and should be used for educational purposes. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose.
Trade active: Hey Guys,

I started to be more active on twitter. Let's get connect there as well.

https://twitter.com/c_ryptoengineer
Trade active: Sold all $btc at 4700 and 5000!
I will be waiting to break $5000 with a strong 4h candle to buy it back to sell at $5800 - $6200 . 20% profit in 1 D for BTC is not bad!
awesome comparison, thx
+1 Reply
@IAmSatoshi, Great to see you on Tradingview, Josh. Just starting to follow you here :)
Reply
One of the better trading/investing guides and base info posts here on TV.
Thank you very much!
Reply
Hi @Trendbeat,
Appreciate it. Hustling hard to learn everyday something new.
You also joined tradingview over 2 years ago, like me what You haven't shared anything yet.
Please let me know when you make your first post.
Happy trading!
Reply
hello
Reply
reverie153 reverie153
@reverie153, I am not good at English, so I am using Google Translator.

You sold all the btc for $4700 to $5,000.

Do you mean waiting for a margin short at 5800-6200?

And the next time down to 3k, you're Coin buy?
Reply
Hi @reverie153,

My original plan was holding BTC until $5800 - $6200, Then I was expecting that BTC drop to $3200- $4000 . However, It pumps hard and I took the profit early.
So, What is the next?
If Bitcoin pass $5200 ( open close 1D chart ) , I will buy it with a stop - loss . The target will be $5800 - $6200 again.
if Bitcoin start to drop , I will start to buy from $4200 to $3200.

I am in 60 - 70% in USDT and 30- 40% in Alts right now.