BCryptological

Critical signal has just occurred in BTC

Short
BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
It's very easy for us to get caught up in the short term charts when the weekly chart reveals the prevailing trend with far less distraction. Something not seen since 2016 has been confirmed in the last 48 hours - a death cross between the 20 and 50 EMA on the weekly chart. This should be considered incredibly bearish, not only for Bítcoin, but also for the key altcoins such as ETH, XRP, BCC, EOS, XLM and LTC - but does also present an excellent opportunity to buy further cut-price altcoins ahead of the next epic bull run.

The significance of the weekly 20 EMA should not be underestimated - just look at what incredibly strong support it played through all of 2016 and 2017, and what incredibly strong resistance it has played throughout 2018.

The behaviour of this death cross can be clearly seen:
  • 20 EMA acts as strong resistance, pushing Bítcoin down to the 200 EMA
  • When Bítcoin eventually broke through the 20 EMA, the 50 EMA pushed it straight back down to the 200 EMA
  • When Bítcoin finally broke through the 50 EMA and created a golden cross it triggered the beginning of the epic bull run which peaked in Dec 2017.
Under the current trend, by the end of 2018:
  • 20 EMA will be around $6000
  • 50 EMA will be $6500
  • 200 EMA will be $4500
More specifically if this scenario plays out again:
The 20 EMA will push BTC down toward the 200 EMA, meaning a series of bounces between $6000 and $4500 throughout part (if not all) of 2019. The crucial moment will come when we can get back above the 50 EMA and create a golden cross. Last time this took just over a year... how long do you think it will take this time? Let me know in the comments below.

Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting.
This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.