It's very easy for us to get caught up in the short term charts when the weekly chart reveals the prevailing trend with far less distraction. Something not seen since 2016 has been confirmed in the last 48 hours - a death cross between the 20 and 50 EMA on the weekly chart. This should be considered incredibly bearish, not only for Bítcoin, but also for the key altcoins such as ETH, XRP, BCC, EOS, XLM and LTC - but does also present an excellent opportunity to buy further cut-price altcoins ahead of the next epic bull run.
The significance of the weekly 20 EMA should not be underestimated - just look at what incredibly strong support it played through all of 2016 and 2017, and what incredibly strong resistance it has played throughout 2018.
The behaviour of this death cross can be clearly seen:
20 EMA acts as strong resistance, pushing Bítcoin down to the 200 EMA
When Bítcoin eventually broke through the 20 EMA, the 50 EMA pushed it straight back down to the 200 EMA
When Bítcoin finally broke through the 50 EMA and created a golden cross it triggered the beginning of the epic bull run which peaked in Dec 2017.
Under the current trend, by the end of 2018:
20 EMA will be around $6000
50 EMA will be $6500
200 EMA will be $4500
More specifically if this scenario plays out again: The 20 EMA will push BTC down toward the 200 EMA, meaning a series of bounces between $6000 and $4500 throughout part (if not all) of 2019. The crucial moment will come when we can get back above the 50 EMA and create a golden cross. Last time this took just over a year... how long do you think it will take this time? Let me know in the comments below.
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Thanks for your analysis! Love that name the "Death cross"! Was looking back at my weekly chart for BTC USD.. I use 55ma and Bol bands..the basis line being 20 ma... so fairly similar. Looking on my chart the cross was the week of 16th July. Which was 1 week before July's high and since then every high has hit the underside of the BB 20 basis line and stayed under.
Something also interesting is using fib numbers for the MA's ..89, 144 and 233 ..have a look on your weekly chart. Crossing the 89ma 6.4k was the start of the breakdown and this weeks weekly candle wick is just touching 144ma @ $4238. So I'm presuming..if the 144ma breaks and price follows this trend then next stop would be 233ma $2751 which sounds radical at this point. But its only another $1600 down. Especially if TETHER n BITFINEX get fucked up by the feds in the coming months.
Market geometry, fibs n MA's etc trip me out! How it all moves and works in huge patterns and to a rhythm.
Getting to your Q about how long it will take. Ive been looking at the Dow and Other markets with history well back into last century. Looking at them on a 1 month chart shows (I thought anyway) the real trends in market.
I mainly use CCI Stoch and Bol bands.
On BTC USD BITFINEX 1M chart, price spent 1 year under 20ma Bol basis line in 2014 bear market. This is the 1st month under now. Actually at the opening of this monthly price was right on the Basis line (approx 6.4k) and fell threw it.
2014 It took 14 months for the CCi to get below -100.0000 which is oversold. And then another 9 months for some divergence to happen.. then next cycle.
SO.. perhaps after march we might have some little runs for 6-9 months and 3rd Quarter 2019 maybe some life coming back then 2020 -2023 go nuts. It will be interesting to see which projects survive this major shake down! Hopefully what emerges will be something that can really change society for the better!
Something also interesting is using fib numbers for the MA's ..89, 144 and 233 ..have a look on your weekly chart. Crossing the 89ma 6.4k was the start of the breakdown and this weeks weekly candle wick is just touching 144ma @ $4238. So I'm presuming..if the 144ma breaks and price follows this trend then next stop would be 233ma $2751 which sounds radical at this point. But its only another $1600 down. Especially if TETHER n BITFINEX get fucked up by the feds in the coming months.
Market geometry, fibs n MA's etc trip me out! How it all moves and works in huge patterns and to a rhythm.
Getting to your Q about how long it will take. Ive been looking at the Dow and Other markets with history well back into last century. Looking at them on a 1 month chart shows (I thought anyway) the real trends in market.
I mainly use CCI Stoch and Bol bands.
On BTC USD BITFINEX 1M chart, price spent 1 year under 20ma Bol basis line in 2014 bear market. This is the 1st month under now. Actually at the opening of this monthly price was right on the Basis line (approx 6.4k) and fell threw it.
2014 It took 14 months for the CCi to get below -100.0000 which is oversold. And then another 9 months for some divergence to happen.. then next cycle.
SO.. perhaps after march we might have some little runs for 6-9 months and 3rd Quarter 2019 maybe some life coming back then 2020 -2023 go nuts. It will be interesting to see which projects survive this major shake down! Hopefully what emerges will be something that can really change society for the better!