Next ATL : 22.02.2020 Next ATH: 06.02.2021 Second ATL: 01.03.2025 This is Not A Financial Advice, It is A Study Case For Myself.
I will try to share the development, as simple as I can ;
DAY ONE (on chart) to ATH-1 , we have 325 days (included). So I tried to find a sequence with fibonacci. What I found was ATH-1 to ATH-2 is following 2,618 fibonacci days with some errors, and ATH-2 to ATH-3 1,618 fibonnaci days with some errors. Actual days were different than what is expected with fibonacci number sequences. So digged and tried to find the lateness (gap).
How I found the next ATL and Next ATH (numer of days with question mark) ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When I sum previous expected ATL with next expected ATL and divide it to error days, I found a fixed number which also aplied to next cycles. (ATL0-ATL1 ) + (ATH1-ATH2 ) / 55,15 days of error (406) + (850,85) /55,15 = 22,85
(ATL1-ATL2 ) + (ATH2-ATH3 ) / 101,32 days of error (5 days is lost in chartin this period) (1062,91) + (1376,68) / 106 = 22,85 lateness secret ratio (silence...)
then next ATH should be ; (ATL2-ATL3 ) + (ATH3-ATH4 )] (1719,79) +(1376,68) / secret ratio of 22,85 = 112,46 days of delay.
So expected ATH2-ATH3 is 1376,68 days + 112,46 days = 1512 days = 06.08.2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now bottom ; (ATH0-ATH1 ) + (ATL0-ATL1 ) has no delays , we accepted them as realized as expected. (to create a base)
(ATH1-ATH2 ) + (ATL1-ATL2 ) / 90 days of error (850,85) + (1062,91) /90 = 21,24
I assume that 21,24 also can be applied which above 22,85 is happened twice. then next ATL should be ;
(ATH1-ATH2 ) + (ATL1-ATL2 ) / 21,24 lateness secret ratio (1376,68) + (1719,79) /21,24 = 145,77 days of delay
So expected ATL2-ATL3 is 1719,79 days + 145,77 days = 1865 days = 22.02.2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATL3-ATL4 same fibonacci expected days and delayed days applied. Since the sequence will follow 2,618 & 1,618 & 1,000
ORANGE PATH (First Version)
BLUE PATH (Update 1)
BLUE PATH (First Version)
Comment
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explanation corrections without change in results ;
ATH2-ATH3 = not 145,77 but 106 days of error
and (ATL1-ATL2 ) + (ATH2-ATH3) / 22,85 (1719,79) +(1376,68) / secret ratio of 22,85 = 135,5 days of delay. ATH3-ATH4 is 1376,68 days + 135,50 days = 1512 days = 06.08.2020
Comment
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One more correction; ATH3-ATH4 is 1376,68 days + 135,50 days = 1512 days = 06.02.2021
Order cancelled
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This idea is no more valid due to next ATL is not realized on 22nd Feb.
@PATHOLOGY_Se, I would love to hear your opinion on current S2F spike up.
PATHOLOGY_Se
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@Anoinvest, very nice work, I checked. Spikes tells a story for sure, It seems that it is very hard to go below MA200 in 2-3 months which my ideas dictate. So I will be checking once more, if the 3148 was the actual ATL of 19K , in terms of any timing patterns. We will see together.
Anoinvest
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@PATHOLOGY_Se, Thanks for the feedback. I must admit that MA200 acts like a very strong support so far but it doesnt mean it have to hold the price forever. Can´t way to see how this will play out. Only time will tell us. Meanwhile I wish you the best to the comming new year. Cheers