This study is an extension of two previous publications of mine where I combine the use of Fibonacci extension levels and the LMACD decreased volatility, in determining Bitcoin's next Highs:
* Chart 1 *
* Chart 2 *
I am not going to analyze concepts like the asymptotic behavior of BTC as its logarithmic grow curve approaches mass adoption, as I have done so extensively in the past.
As you see on Chart 1 since Bitcoin's first Bear Cycle (June 2011 - November 2011), the High of the next Cycle can be calculated using the 2.3 Fibonacci extension. Adding +0.1 on each Fib High can give us the next Top. On that idea I did every Cycle separately, on the current study I combined all Cycles into one Fibonacci extension. Each Cycle Top is a progression of 2.272 +1.000. Meaning the November 2013 Top is at 2.272 Fib, then the next (December 2017) at 3.272 (previous Cycle +1.000), which makes a projection for the next Cycle Top at 4.272 that is roughly around $350000!
From Chart 2, I used the theory of LMACD widening Triangles to show how those can indicate not just the Cycles Tops but also the last Highs before them. See how every first contact of the LMACD with the inner Triangle is the last High (roughly) before Bitcoin makes its new Cycle Top (ATH) on the outer Triangle. I have applied the Pitchfan tool to make the Triangle layers symmetrical. Surprisingly, every last High before the final Cycle Top is on a progression of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, i.e. first Cycle at 1.618, second at 2.618, third (projection) at 3.618. How is this useful to us? It suggests that once the LMACD hits the orange line be ready to see a new Cycle Top within the next 6 months on the final (and most aggressive) part of this Cycle's parabolic rise (which should be on the red line).
So what do you think? Is this Cycle's top near 350k realistic? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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** For the record this study is not intended to time the top but just make a projection on the actual price. If you are interested in timing it, take a look on the idea below: