Lot's are calling for new highs on Bitcoin this year, and frankly, I don't see that happening. However, I do see us at the beginnings of our next major upside cycle, starting off of our 3k lows and ultimately headed to 100k+ per BTC by 2023.
As expected with a log growth curve, time elapsed from peak to peak is expected to increase while ROI from trough to peak is expected to decrease. The implications are as follows, assuming the low for BTC is in at 3.1k:
1. We can expect that the high of this next cycle will not be met until after 2022 and most likely sometime after 2023. 2. We can expect ROI off the lows to be no more than 10,000% at an absolute MAX (caps us at $300,000) but realistically somewhere between $100,000-$200,000 per BTC. 3. No new highs until sometime in 2021.
I will be tracking this chart over the next few years to see how it plays out. So sit back, stack some sats , and follow along with me on this exciting journey!
Nice chart, food for thought. This Covid-19 has many unemployed and businesses shutting down. I see no chance for BTC to go higher but lower because there is no money to push it up. Many will be cashing in trying to pay their bills.
CredibleCrypto
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@keifer, Yes, this is the most common sentiment I have seen. But to be very frank, the masses that are finding themselves in no place to purchase speculative assets like BTC at this time are NEVER the ones who buy the bottom of market cycles anyways. The average Joe will come in after we break 20k and start making new highs. Currently, smart money is accumulating at these lows, and they are likely well prepared to buy a dip in not just crypto but equities as well. We know that in times of crises, its a time of opportunity for those who actually have money to spend, and they will take advantage of it. A very surface level example, but if no one had the money to buy right now, how did BTC already move up over 70% off its lows from the drop to 3.5-3.7k last week? The simple fact is, while retail may not be buying the dip, smart money is. And they are loving it. A simple transfer of wealth from the masses to the few a la coronavirus.
keifer
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@CredibleCrypto, COT reports say the smart money is shorting.
CredibleCrypto
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@keifer, I focus on the charts, thats all. Everything else is noise imo.
Ethvangelist
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@CredibleCrypto, Narratives are what people use to justify what happened. They don't really explain it.
@keifer I thought these numbers were high too and didn't understand a year ago how this could happen. Now with the FED printing so many dollars it seems possible. You have to consider that 100k may not be worth nearly that in 2 years.
tenyearbtc
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magic
Stofka
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Man... You called the current running flat almost two years ago!!
Bart3G
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magic
tms_
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Hi! Any updates? Thank you
noochboy
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Where did you buy that cristal ball? Great stuf, looking at it in hindsight.