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SebastianofMoon
Dec 2, 2018 10:13 AM

If not miracle happens, this is what BTC will do 

Bitcoin Liquid IndexBrave New Coin

Description

So, it seems I over-estimated BTC.
It doesn't pump as expected, until not yet, we still have half a day until the weekly candle close.

If no miracle happens, and the weekly closes like this, this would be certainly a very bad sign, and we would continue to dump down to the SQRT support, at around 2k.

The question then is, what will happen in 2019.

Two scenarios are possible:

The healthy correction is the blue one, where 2000 marks the low, and afterwards we'll have a flat period and resume the bullmarket in late 2019 to mid 2020.

The red scenario is the not so nice one. Here, the final low will be in the area of the previous ATH. This then, would lead to a very long bearmarket imho, which would take
longer to turn into a bullmarket again. If this happens, we can forget new ATHs before 2022, and it could even take until 2023. That sucks, and as many others, I hope this would not
happen. However, one should keep an open mind and also look at things that one doesn't like.

I'm unsure now, I expected a strong bounce, but it didn't happen,
so now things aren't looking so great. Let's hope for the blue scenario.

Comment



Well, time to update the idea. As suspected, the weekly and Stoch RSI picture pointed towards the next weekly candle being a big, red one. Now, this is a weird slow bleed down, rather than an extreme spike.

What does that mean?
Well, if we don't bounce soon, we'll continue to drag down to the SQRT function which acts as support, the bright blue line at around 2100. This would not be good at all. This would then have gone down much further than anyone would have guessed. Obviously, it then cannot magically go back to bullmarket. This would really open up the possibility for the red scenario with a long stretched out bearmarket till 2020, with retest of 1200.

If it goes below the SQRT support line, it would be a disaster. I mean a weekly close below that line. It maybe could go as low as 1800, but it should immediately bounce. However, going so low in this dump cycle would mean, that we'd go lower in the next one.

Comment

Not too much going on, we hit 3200, however, no strong bounce in sight. For an intermediate reversal, we need a strong bounce. Therefore, I assume that this will go further down.
Comments
ReallyMe
I think we're about to slump to $ 2.5k
SebastianofMoon
@ReallyMe, Sounds about right, yes, target area probably is in that region. Thanks four your analysis :)
ReallyMe
All your arrows point up sooner or later... I still miss the third "absolutely ever not nice at all" variant, where the curve goes down in the direction of zero at the end. ;-)
SebastianofMoon
@ReallyMe, hehe :) the "absolutely ever Not nice at all" Variant, is so unnice, that I can't even draw it XD
Pippes3232
Keep up the good work...
Not the nicest result...But will fall inline with capitulation and despair phase...
SebastianofMoon
@Pippes3232, Thanks :) I'll try to keep the charts coming. Unfortunately I am not always right, but I try my best to understand the dynamics of BTC. Yes, we have to keep an open mind for scenarios that we don't like, no matter how unfriendly and brutal they look. Only then can we earn money in this market. We should be prepared for all scenarios and be flexible in our investment and trading approach.
arandon
@FlaviusTodorius67, thanks, man. I'm a huge fan of your honest predictions.
SebastianofMoon
@arandon, thank you :) i try to understand this crazy BTC as best as I can XD and yes, it is honest, because i want to earn money with the BTC cycles, and not by creating paid groups or Shit like that, which apparently some bigger people here on tradingview like to do.
SebastianofMoon
@FlaviusTodorius67, i will continue to post Stuff here, exactly as I will trade it :)
arandon
@FlaviusTodorius67, thank you. Meanwhile, I'm creating my own exchange. 80% done.
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