After looking at the yearly perspective and along with Dave the Wave on Twitter and PlanB's Stock to Flow model it got me thinking. I broke it down a little further and looked for some patterns and confluence on the weekly time frame. Here's what I found:
Firstly, each cycle is clearly getting longer. The blue boxes indicate the time and percentage gain it has taken from each cycle's high to the first pull back after that high was broken. As you can see the first cycle dropped roughly 6% I used this percentage to extrapolate our current cycle.
I then measured the retrace between each cycle high with it's corresponding low. This identified that the first pullback after each All Time High was broken (at the time) hit the 1.618 almost to the dot (front run a little each time).
The next thing I noticed, in the first cycle we smashed through the 0.618 the first time we came to test it. In the 2nd cycle we tested it once and then broke through it on the second attempt. In our current cycle, as of Monday's weekly close we have just tested it for a second time. Does this mean that maybe we'll break through it on the third attempt?
Also could this mean that once we break our ATH the first weekly retrace will come back to the 1.618?
Finally it could also mean that the pullback would happen in January 2024?
Comment
⋅
After looking at the chart thinking I'd done it correctly, the current cycles blue box is slightly too big. We may look at a early to mid 2023 pullback.
Comment
⋅
Well the first idea failed, it rallied straight up. Let's see if the first major pullback pulls back to the 1.618 line. This should be interesting.
Comment
⋅
Looks like we're now getting a deeper pullback than the last 2 cycles. Is it because of the current macro environment we are living in? Is it because crypto investors were spooked as LUNA and UST were killed off? Time will tell. Let's see what this next cycle will bring. Is next time different?