They are wrong because bitcoins lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The very longterm goal of BTC , in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.
I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
I updated the longterm chart here:
But as we can see, even this might be too conservative. Crazy !
Unnatural, because you can literally see that someone spent a long time designing and inventing it on a drawing board. It is a very artificial creation.
I do not believe that real market price movements will remain range bound between these artificially designed log lines, parabolas or whatever.
The people who draw these silly lines over and over again have taken on the futile task of predicting the future by years ahead. Something nobody can do.
But what I say is : why bother?
Let the markets tell you their direction, don’t you try to tell the markets their direction (it's no use - they won't follow your drawings anyway ;-))