BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
I thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.

I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.

The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.

The very longterm goal of BTC , in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.

The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.

I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
Comment: So, 5 months later it seems that we are still on track for that low in a few months. It could be as low as 2000, because that line is of course not very precise, the smallest deviation yields a few hundred USD above or below. But it can serve as a good orientation point when to start buying cheap coins :)
Comment: It turns out that this prediction here has become way too conservative. Bitcoin started the bullmarket earlier than predicted.

I updated the longterm chart here:

But as we can see, even this might be too conservative. Crazy !
Comment: Apparently we're exactly where we should be. But: I think we'll reach 100k earlier than this chart suggests, already in 2021 instead of 2022.

Comments

How are you drawing that exponential curve on tradingview? I have been wanting to do some of this type of engineering type analysis, but I'm new to tradingview so I can't seem to find all the tools.
+19 Reply
judg1k zcbercomputing
@zcbercomputing, did u find already? share please
+1 Reply
@judg1k, Tradingview closed the associated support ticket, and I haven't taken the time to work on it more. Bitcoin wisdom should do lines on the exponential chart that turn in to exponential functions on the linear chart, but I am not aware of how to draw with custom exponents or functions of exponents.
Reply
AdrianZieniewicz zcbercomputing
@zcbercomputing, you can't do this using a function but by manually drawing a line and bending it, lol. That's one of the reasons I don't appreciate such predictions.
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Good job man.
+7 Reply
I think BTC is closed to the bottom, 3.0~3.5K.
+5 Reply
The problem with all projections, where the price moves up and down, between two straight log lines or, more recently, between two parabolas, is that it is extremely unnatural.
Unnatural, because you can literally see that someone spent a long time designing and inventing it on a drawing board. It is a very artificial creation.

I do not believe that real market price movements will remain range bound between these artificially designed log lines, parabolas or whatever.

The people who draw these silly lines over and over again have taken on the futile task of predicting the future by years ahead. Something nobody can do.
+4 Reply
@ReallyMe, Yes, it remains only a "best fit" scenario. You take the available data, fit a curve, which in this case turns out to be an f(x)=sqrt(x) function, and then you extrapolate into the future. Of course that is no guarantee that this will materialize exactly like that, but it is a good guess, I would say.
+8 Reply
ReallyMe FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, Yes, sure.
But what I say is : why bother?
Let the markets tell you their direction, don’t you try to tell the markets their direction (it's no use - they won't follow your drawings anyway ;-))
+4 Reply
@ReallyMe, This is exactly a best fit type of scenario. If you try best fit with single order equations (lines) it almost always fails. If you use exponentials it gets better, infinite series are much better ways to approximate the behavior. The point of the analysis is to come up with an equation that has the same mechanics or behavior of the market. Very accurate predictions can then be made as long as the character of the market remains the same. If something changes fundamentally, then new equations have to be developed.
+4 Reply
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