They are wrong because bitcoins lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The very longterm goal of BTC , in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.
I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
I updated the longterm chart here:
But as we can see, even this might be too conservative. Crazy !
The above chart is not really correct any more, this one here uses the correct regression trend:
In all my latest analyses I am using that one. The upper channel currently sits at 130k USD and rising, in late 2022 we are looking at 250k.
Also, I am going to publish it as an indicator.