BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Comparing the fractal patterns of the 1st top of the 2013 bull run to the current market, it looks like a do-over. The peaks and valleys line up very well though the 2013 price volatility was a bit more severe.

My thought processed is summarized by the lyrics "should I stay or should I go now - if I go there will be trouble - if I stay there will be double" - The Clash

Dont go long,
As I've written previously, I'm bearish because I do not see new smart addresses accumulating BTC . This indicates smart money doesn't anticipate an ATH in the near future. The metric isnt one that I'm willing to ignore. Its been very accurate throughout the history of BTC .

Oh wait,
This conflicts with all the short-term TA which is all green practically begging a long position. It's been very profitable and I need to let my gains run.

But,
When in doubt zoom out. Darn, the monthly says we are in the B Wave of an ABC corrective wave. Smart money shorts the C Wave - its the wave you get pummeled into the sand and wish you were dreaming.

Yes, it seems as muddy as it always does. I've been long since day 2 of the reversal based on a huge bullish engulfing candle. Its been a profitable B Wave for me. This morning I scaled back 50% of my holdings. I'm waiting to see what tomorrow morning brings - I will scale out 90% if I dont see a decent buying impulse. I refuse to ride the C wave back down.

If I'm wrong, the fractal pattern from 2013 will hints that over the next several months there will be good reentry points before the final major move. Temporarily reducing my bags will protect my profit by avoiding a potential downside C wave that I'm leaning towards because I do not see smart money is interested in this rally.