Comparing the fractal patterns of the 1st top of the 2013 bull run to the current market, it looks like a do-over. The peaks and valleys line up very well though the 2013 price volatility was a bit more severe.
My thought processed is summarized by the lyrics "should I stay or should I go now - if I go there will be trouble - if I stay there will be double" - The Clash
Dont go long, As I've written previously, I'm bearish because I do not see new smart addresses accumulating BTC. This indicates smart money doesn't anticipate an ATH in the near future. The metric isnt one that I'm willing to ignore. Its been very accurate throughout the history of BTC.
Oh wait, This conflicts with all the short-term TA which is all green practically begging a long position. It's been very profitable and I need to let my gains run.
But, When in doubt zoom out. Darn, the monthly says we are in the B Wave of an ABC corrective wave. Smart money shorts the C Wave - its the wave you get pummeled into the sand and wish you were dreaming.
Yes, it seems as muddy as it always does. I've been long since day 2 of the reversal based on a huge bullish engulfing candle. Its been a profitable B Wave for me. This morning I scaled back 50% of my holdings. I'm waiting to see what tomorrow morning brings - I will scale out 90% if I dont see a decent buying impulse. I refuse to ride the C wave back down.
If I'm wrong, the fractal pattern from 2013 will hints that over the next several months there will be good reentry points before the final major move. Temporarily reducing my bags will protect my profit by avoiding a potential downside C wave that I'm leaning towards because I do not see smart money is interested in this rally.
Glassnode tracks BTC's as they move through the blockchain. Certain assumptions can be made about how much BTC is flowing, where it is flowing to and from. There are more ways to analyze the data than you can imagine. Much of it lags price - its created because price moved a certain direction. I could look at it and tell you what price did. For example, there is data to show how many BTC addresses are storing more than 1 million dollars worth of BTC. Those addresses are big money holders by my standards, but the number of addresses with > 1 million is going to go up and down with price by definition....and they do. Its impossible to tell, however, if those accounts are previous accounts that moved higher into a new bracket because of price, or if account holders added BTC, or if they or new accounts.
The subset of data that almost always leads the market is new addresses >1k BTC. In theory, these represent "big money" and they represent "new" money. They start to increase substantially at the bottom of cycles and they decrease as the bull market goes hyperbolic. By the time the market capitulates, those new addresses are essentially gone. There was 1 time where the started increasing slightly after the market capitulation, however, it made no difference. They were done accumulating and started distributing well before the next run up started. If you would have watched this metric, you would have avoided the May sell off - aka followed smart money.
Glassnode also tracks where BTC is flowing. I watch to see if money is flowing into or out of the exchange addresses. Flowing out means people are moving it off the exchanges to safely store it for longer periods and not trade it. Once you see it start to flow back on to the exchanges you can be sure that you will see selling pressure and usually prices move down. This metric would have also helped you avoid the May sell off.
Glassnode also tracks what miners are doing with their BTC. Miners tend to be very smart money. They save their BTC to sell during price rallies and HODL during the low times. While I consider them as smart money, the results I've seen mimic those of addresses >1K BTC.
freddie1779
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Hi Barnbuilder!
Thanks for your outlook on the whole btc situation :)
I sold 25% of my portfolio and looking for the next opportunity to sell more as i'm also not fully trusting this situation.
Would you be able to share some details on the smart adresses accumulating? Which charts are the best to follow?
That would help greatly :D
The subset of data that almost always leads the market is new addresses >1k BTC. In theory, these represent "big money" and they represent "new" money. They start to increase substantially at the bottom of cycles and they decrease as the bull market goes hyperbolic. By the time the market capitulates, those new addresses are essentially gone. There was 1 time where the started increasing slightly after the market capitulation, however, it made no difference. They were done accumulating and started distributing well before the next run up started. If you would have watched this metric, you would have avoided the May sell off - aka followed smart money.
Glassnode also tracks where BTC is flowing. I watch to see if money is flowing into or out of the exchange addresses. Flowing out means people are moving it off the exchanges to safely store it for longer periods and not trade it. Once you see it start to flow back on to the exchanges you can be sure that you will see selling pressure and usually prices move down. This metric would have also helped you avoid the May sell off.
Glassnode also tracks what miners are doing with their BTC. Miners tend to be very smart money. They save their BTC to sell during price rallies and HODL during the low times. While I consider them as smart money, the results I've seen mimic those of addresses >1K BTC.