Bitcoin: Long term TA Part 1. The past 3 weeks have been very exciting for Bitcoin. After reaching a trend low of 6440, the price has rebounded over 30%, pushing over $8400 earlier today. With action that leaves us holding our breath, it begs the question. Was that the bottom? Have the bulls returned? Is this a fake-out.
Let’s begin by taking a look at the 2019 bear market. As you can see, I’ve used a fib channel (white) to highlight the range and angle of the trend. Today’s action has taken the price above the 0.236 line in the fib channel, something not seen since the fake-out pump above 10k back in late October. Exciting stuff, but could it just be another fake-out before hitting lower lows? It’s too soon to tell. Time under price will be critical.
Adding a logarithmic and linear retrace to the 2019 bull market gives us a better idea of what’s going on. As you can see, before the recent break-out, the price fluctuated between the .5 log retrace at 6600 and the .382 log at 7860 with the linear .618 at 7200 right in the middle. Recent action has blasted the price above the linear .382 suggesting possible support in the event of a correction in the short term. If the bulls make a good argument, the price could stabilize between the log .382 at 7860 and the linear .5 at 8500. This would be fantastic for the bulls!
To get a better idea of the possible angular momentum of an incoming bull trend, I’ve used a disjoint angle tool to measure the 2019 bear market, using it to produce a bullish fib channel (Yellow) inverse to the bear market. The confluence in the trend is obvious. Should we break above and outside of the 2019 bear market channel, I suspect the yellow fib channel may highlight the range of an incoming market reversal.
In conclusion, things look positive, but it’s too soon to tell. In part 2 we will dive even deeper.
Let’s begin by taking a look at the 2019 bear market. As you can see, I’ve used a fib channel (white) to highlight the range and angle of the trend. Today’s action has taken the price above the 0.236 line in the fib channel, something not seen since the fake-out pump above 10k back in late October. Exciting stuff, but could it just be another fake-out before hitting lower lows? It’s too soon to tell. Time under price will be critical.
Adding a logarithmic and linear retrace to the 2019 bull market gives us a better idea of what’s going on. As you can see, before the recent break-out, the price fluctuated between the .5 log retrace at 6600 and the .382 log at 7860 with the linear .618 at 7200 right in the middle. Recent action has blasted the price above the linear .382 suggesting possible support in the event of a correction in the short term. If the bulls make a good argument, the price could stabilize between the log .382 at 7860 and the linear .5 at 8500. This would be fantastic for the bulls!
To get a better idea of the possible angular momentum of an incoming bull trend, I’ve used a disjoint angle tool to measure the 2019 bear market, using it to produce a bullish fib channel (Yellow) inverse to the bear market. The confluence in the trend is obvious. Should we break above and outside of the 2019 bear market channel, I suspect the yellow fib channel may highlight the range of an incoming market reversal.
In conclusion, things look positive, but it’s too soon to tell. In part 2 we will dive even deeper.