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I'm going to show you my BTC trading plan in USDT .
Look at the latest analysis update The illustrations are illustrative.
As you remember English is not my native language (I'm KURD and VIVA ROJAVA), so please don't judge my English strictly, I will continue to improve my skills in this.
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I'm going to show you my BTC trading plan in USDT .
Look at the latest analysis update The illustrations are illustrative.
As you remember English is not my native language (I'm KURD and VIVA ROJAVA), so please don't judge my English strictly, I will continue to improve my skills in this.
Guys, if you like the idea please like the button, this will be the best thanks.
If you have any suggestions on how I can improve my video ideas you can write them in the comments!
Thank you for your support, I appreciate it.
Comment:
Hello traders investors and community, like many people talking about the next bull or bear phase I want to have a rational look on the things going on, as of talking, technically we are still in an overall big consolidation phase.
This note is in two parts
Part One:
As you can see in my chart we have this long long important support line just below us, this support line has its origins at the very beginnings of bitcoin in 2013. This support line needs to hold otherwise bitcoin will visit the bearish zone and go playing with the fishes, it will be a definite bearish signal when we cross this support line to the downside. What is the good thing right now is that we are in a neutral position where the potential for a possible bull continuation is given.
On the other side, there is also a huge resistance which is marked in red in the chart and stands for a crucial step in turning bullish for bitcoin , this resistance is important to be broken when we consider the bullish scenario. Also we have the two trend-lines consolidating into each other, the support trend-line and the resistance trend-line, they are forming an ultimate "Decision Process End-Date" as you can see it marked with the blue vertical line in the chart and it is the 29th of November, until this date the definite decision will happen.
What is with the halving cycle? The important halving cycle which I predicted in a previous forecast can technically still develop, we have the "Bitcoin Halving Date" on the 13th of May, after this date is possible for bitcoin to see a surge in price as seen after previous halving dates but remember until the price hasn't confirmed the huge crucial resistance above us as support bitcoin is still in a neutral consolidation phase and the potential to turning bearish again is given.
The corona fears going on and the panic on the markets shouldn't be ignored, as for now, many countries increase the restrictions against the public. We have a confirmed recession in the US and the stock market is down. In this case, bitcoin can form an anticyclical market movement in the other direction but that has to be, as I already mentioned, confirmed in the structure and we saw the last days how fast bitcoin can turn bearish taken off by the corona fear sellings.
This note is in two parts
Part One:
As you can see in my chart we have this long long important support line just below us, this support line has its origins at the very beginnings of bitcoin in 2013. This support line needs to hold otherwise bitcoin will visit the bearish zone and go playing with the fishes, it will be a definite bearish signal when we cross this support line to the downside. What is the good thing right now is that we are in a neutral position where the potential for a possible bull continuation is given.
On the other side, there is also a huge resistance which is marked in red in the chart and stands for a crucial step in turning bullish for bitcoin , this resistance is important to be broken when we consider the bullish scenario. Also we have the two trend-lines consolidating into each other, the support trend-line and the resistance trend-line, they are forming an ultimate "Decision Process End-Date" as you can see it marked with the blue vertical line in the chart and it is the 29th of November, until this date the definite decision will happen.
What is with the halving cycle? The important halving cycle which I predicted in a previous forecast can technically still develop, we have the "Bitcoin Halving Date" on the 13th of May, after this date is possible for bitcoin to see a surge in price as seen after previous halving dates but remember until the price hasn't confirmed the huge crucial resistance above us as support bitcoin is still in a neutral consolidation phase and the potential to turning bearish again is given.
The corona fears going on and the panic on the markets shouldn't be ignored, as for now, many countries increase the restrictions against the public. We have a confirmed recession in the US and the stock market is down. In this case, bitcoin can form an anticyclical market movement in the other direction but that has to be, as I already mentioned, confirmed in the structure and we saw the last days how fast bitcoin can turn bearish taken off by the corona fear sellings.
Comment:
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Part II :
The chart shows the daily and weekly lines of Bitcoin , with the daily trend on the chart above and the weekly line below.
Let's start with the daily line, has now verified my February proposed B-wave trend, assuming that here is a double-headed trend, theoretically double-headed adjustment target is as follows:
Upper limit:
magnitude 13868-6430=7438, target bit 6430-7438=-1008
Lower limit:
magnitude 10522-6430=4092, target 6430-4092=2338
After seeing it, you must feel unacceptable and wonder if I'm wrong. But it's true, according to the formula, and that's it. By the two-headed standard, the theoretical target is between $2,338 and -$1008.
Of course, this is only a theoretical value, in reality of course can not fall to negative values, so most markets eventually use time for space, to solve the problem.
If we follow the abc trend, then the calculation is as follows:
a wave length: 13868-6430= 7438
c-wave: upper limit 10522-7438=3084
lower limit 10522-7438 x 1.618=-1512
There is also a negative value. Even the upper limit now looks like there's room for a $2,000 decline.
The m head of the daily line has been confirmed, now the focus should be on whether the neck line of $6430 can be recovered , that is, if the rebound can not break through $6430, the market will continue to swing down, confirmthe target of $3,084.
Next we take a look at the week line, this is the abc trend I mentioned in the super B wave I described may2019, if we use the same algorithm to draw the following:
Both heads (provided they fall below the neckline of $3128) and abc three waves, the end result will be negative (no show process). Of course I don't think Bitcoin can have a negative value. So how do we tell where to fall and how much we fall? To tell you the truth, the technology I have is not enough to judge accurately, but logically, space-for-time is generally accepted by the market for technical analysis methods. So I think in the end, even if Bitcoin doesn't fall to 0, it's going to take a relatively long time.
Part II :
The chart shows the daily and weekly lines of Bitcoin , with the daily trend on the chart above and the weekly line below.
Let's start with the daily line, has now verified my February proposed B-wave trend, assuming that here is a double-headed trend, theoretically double-headed adjustment target is as follows:
Upper limit:
magnitude 13868-6430=7438, target bit 6430-7438=-1008
Lower limit:
magnitude 10522-6430=4092, target 6430-4092=2338
After seeing it, you must feel unacceptable and wonder if I'm wrong. But it's true, according to the formula, and that's it. By the two-headed standard, the theoretical target is between $2,338 and -$1008.
Of course, this is only a theoretical value, in reality of course can not fall to negative values, so most markets eventually use time for space, to solve the problem.
If we follow the abc trend, then the calculation is as follows:
a wave length: 13868-6430= 7438
c-wave: upper limit 10522-7438=3084
lower limit 10522-7438 x 1.618=-1512
There is also a negative value. Even the upper limit now looks like there's room for a $2,000 decline.
The m head of the daily line has been confirmed, now the focus should be on whether the neck line of $6430 can be recovered , that is, if the rebound can not break through $6430, the market will continue to swing down, confirmthe target of $3,084.
Next we take a look at the week line, this is the abc trend I mentioned in the super B wave I described may2019, if we use the same algorithm to draw the following:
Both heads (provided they fall below the neckline of $3128) and abc three waves, the end result will be negative (no show process). Of course I don't think Bitcoin can have a negative value. So how do we tell where to fall and how much we fall? To tell you the truth, the technology I have is not enough to judge accurately, but logically, space-for-time is generally accepted by the market for technical analysis methods. So I think in the end, even if Bitcoin doesn't fall to 0, it's going to take a relatively long time.
Comment:
The above is only derived by traditional technical theory. But that may not be enough to convince everyone. So we're going to confirm the technical prediction from the logical reasoning. (/b)
1, we thought, why can the price of Bitcoin go up? I think most people can accept the theory that supply and demand determine the price. So what is the most widely used scenario for Bitcoin right now? As far as I know, it's digital currency trading. So suppose 70% or more of the market's applications are transactions, and can you think that there will be fewer transactions and less demand for Bitcoin . If when demand decreases, does the price fall?
2. Bitcoin is run by nodes that are maintained by miners. So a lot of people are saying that the reward for bitcoin is cut in half and the price has to go up or the miners won't survive. Before 2017, the price of bitcoin was less than $1,000. In the past three years, the price of bitcoin has increased by 500%.
What does it currently cost a miner to produce one bitcoin? If the market demand is reduced, the mining difficulty will be reduced synchronously. As long as the concentration degree of nodes is not higher than 50%, can the normal network operation be maintained?
3. Who is the biggest beneficiary in the market? As far as I know, the best interests of the cryptocurrency market are trading and mining suppliers. You can find the answer in the performance reports of huobi and Canaan.
So, for exchanges, they want investors to hold on to bitcoin for the long term and enjoy the price rise; Or do you want the price of bitcoin to fluctuate wildly and investors to trade it frequently?
For the miners, do they want the mining to be easy and the miners to keep the old machines, or do they want the miners to keep replacing the new ones?
1, we thought, why can the price of Bitcoin go up? I think most people can accept the theory that supply and demand determine the price. So what is the most widely used scenario for Bitcoin right now? As far as I know, it's digital currency trading. So suppose 70% or more of the market's applications are transactions, and can you think that there will be fewer transactions and less demand for Bitcoin . If when demand decreases, does the price fall?
2. Bitcoin is run by nodes that are maintained by miners. So a lot of people are saying that the reward for bitcoin is cut in half and the price has to go up or the miners won't survive. Before 2017, the price of bitcoin was less than $1,000. In the past three years, the price of bitcoin has increased by 500%.
What does it currently cost a miner to produce one bitcoin? If the market demand is reduced, the mining difficulty will be reduced synchronously. As long as the concentration degree of nodes is not higher than 50%, can the normal network operation be maintained?
3. Who is the biggest beneficiary in the market? As far as I know, the best interests of the cryptocurrency market are trading and mining suppliers. You can find the answer in the performance reports of huobi and Canaan.
So, for exchanges, they want investors to hold on to bitcoin for the long term and enjoy the price rise; Or do you want the price of bitcoin to fluctuate wildly and investors to trade it frequently?
For the miners, do they want the mining to be easy and the miners to keep the old machines, or do they want the miners to keep replacing the new ones?
Comment:
I think you're all smart enough to have your own answers.
So I've always thought that "halving bull" is a false statement. Everyone agrees that bear markets and workers cannot survive. But I would say it could be a sign that a market has matured from barbarism.
The digital money market has been around for less than a decade (in the form of bitstamp ), but the development is rocket speed.
It took China's a-share market 20 years to complete 100 years of financial evolution in the us. But it turned out to be indigestion, so the index has stayed around 3,000 for the past decade.
If the digital money market is any like other financial markets, he is suffering from indigestion.
Fraud, illicit trading, a lack of government support, limited access to capital, more exchanges than trades, not to mention the fact that 90 per cent of them offer no real services and have so far been unable to shed the stigma of dark web tools.
The three major problems that are now plaguing the development of digital currencies remain unresolved.
1, Nakamoto who is, if cw is Nakamoto, then whether bsv replace btc , if so, the market will be shocked.
2, The existence of financial fraud in Ripple , we all know that xrp from the beginning of a different kind. He is neither an encrypted digital currency nor a security in our traditional sense. So in the United States has been plagued by litigation. If Ripple loses, a large number of tokens of his share could face the same fate, and the digital currency market could collapse.
3, investors expect the ETF can be approved. As we all know, since the CFTC approved the Bitcoin contract, what is most expected is that SCE will give Bitcoin legal market status, allowing ETF funds to participate in trading, so that the digital currency market, like other centralized markets, will be a legitimate trading place. But the dream is far from over, and no compliance body can afford 60 per cent of the day' amplitude.
All of the above is where the market needs to be perfected. I think the development of Bitcoin over the past 12 years has come down to two important foundations: Nakamoto's invention of Bitcoin and the discovery of the first token, which is the basis for the existence of digital currencies; And this is the real first bull market, although there have been huge gains before, but they are just a few people to entertain themselves in the game, and did not become a product of marketization.
So I've always thought that "halving bull" is a false statement. Everyone agrees that bear markets and workers cannot survive. But I would say it could be a sign that a market has matured from barbarism.
The digital money market has been around for less than a decade (in the form of bitstamp ), but the development is rocket speed.
It took China's a-share market 20 years to complete 100 years of financial evolution in the us. But it turned out to be indigestion, so the index has stayed around 3,000 for the past decade.
If the digital money market is any like other financial markets, he is suffering from indigestion.
Fraud, illicit trading, a lack of government support, limited access to capital, more exchanges than trades, not to mention the fact that 90 per cent of them offer no real services and have so far been unable to shed the stigma of dark web tools.
The three major problems that are now plaguing the development of digital currencies remain unresolved.
1, Nakamoto who is, if cw is Nakamoto, then whether bsv replace btc , if so, the market will be shocked.
2, The existence of financial fraud in Ripple , we all know that xrp from the beginning of a different kind. He is neither an encrypted digital currency nor a security in our traditional sense. So in the United States has been plagued by litigation. If Ripple loses, a large number of tokens of his share could face the same fate, and the digital currency market could collapse.
3, investors expect the ETF can be approved. As we all know, since the CFTC approved the Bitcoin contract, what is most expected is that SCE will give Bitcoin legal market status, allowing ETF funds to participate in trading, so that the digital currency market, like other centralized markets, will be a legitimate trading place. But the dream is far from over, and no compliance body can afford 60 per cent of the day' amplitude.
All of the above is where the market needs to be perfected. I think the development of Bitcoin over the past 12 years has come down to two important foundations: Nakamoto's invention of Bitcoin and the discovery of the first token, which is the basis for the existence of digital currencies; And this is the real first bull market, although there have been huge gains before, but they are just a few people to entertain themselves in the game, and did not become a product of marketization.
Comment:
So I think the second bull market should be based on two conditions:
1. The emergence of a great leader comparable to satoshi nakamoto creatively led the development of digital currency market.
2. In the process of deleveraging in the past five years, China's a-share market can be referred to for reference. Only when a large number of invalid trades are wiped out (fake exchanges don't create value), practitioners return to their technology (rather than making money by issuing COINS), and the price is infinitely close to the value (although it's still very empty, I can't confirm the true value of bitcoin ).
This is my personal opinion, which may have many unprofessional aspects (I am not an expert in blockchain, so I can only analyze it from the perspective of financial market. I have a lot of respect for bitcoin . It's a new thing. Any innovation is the driving force in the observation of human development. No matter what the outcome, they will move forward in the future. I respect the courage of innovators.
__________________________________________________
Guys, if you like the idea please like the button, this will be the best thanks.
If you have any suggestions on how I can improve my video ideas you can write them in the comments!
Thank you for your support, I appreciate it.
please like me now and follow me on tradingview.com/u/omidmokri/
1. The emergence of a great leader comparable to satoshi nakamoto creatively led the development of digital currency market.
2. In the process of deleveraging in the past five years, China's a-share market can be referred to for reference. Only when a large number of invalid trades are wiped out (fake exchanges don't create value), practitioners return to their technology (rather than making money by issuing COINS), and the price is infinitely close to the value (although it's still very empty, I can't confirm the true value of bitcoin ).
This is my personal opinion, which may have many unprofessional aspects (I am not an expert in blockchain, so I can only analyze it from the perspective of financial market. I have a lot of respect for bitcoin . It's a new thing. Any innovation is the driving force in the observation of human development. No matter what the outcome, they will move forward in the future. I respect the courage of innovators.
__________________________________________________
Guys, if you like the idea please like the button, this will be the best thanks.
If you have any suggestions on how I can improve my video ideas you can write them in the comments!
Thank you for your support, I appreciate it.
please like me now and follow me on tradingview.com/u/omidmokri/
Comment:
1. 2015 (14 January) - Dump from 320$ to 150$, which is -50%
2. 2016 (16 January) - Dump from $460$ to $360$, which is -20%
3. 2017 (11 January) - Dump from $1120 to $770, which is -35%
4. 2018 (16 January) - Dump from 17500$ to $9700, which is -45%
5. 2019 (10 January) - Dump from 4000$ to $3500, which is -15%
6. 2020 (?)