As we can see, in 3-5 weeks from now i.e, 3rd week for Jan to 2nd week of Feb 2023, we are looking at 50 week and 200 week moving average death cross. This has NEVER happened in the history of bitcoin. As of now, it doesn't look like market will go above 24K to avoid this death cross. Hence, the possibility of a never seen before crypto winter.
Moreover, you can see from the Fib extension that the target levels are ~13363 (fib 0.382), ~9734 (fib 0.5) or as low as ~6100 (fib 0.618). To draw this fib levels I assumed that the bear market began from the top of March-April 2022.
Additionally, In previous bear market of 2018 Bitcoin dropped ~83%. In the bear market of 2014, it dropped ~83%. In the bear market of 2011 it dropped ~92%. Therefore, a drop of ~85% from ATH would mean price would reach ~9800, which is close to 0.5 fib level and a drop of 91% would make the price as low as ~6000.
A drop to 6K seems difficult to imagine for myself but drops like this has happened in the past and BTC will recover stronger than ever. What do you guys think?
I'm learning myself and feedbacks are welcome. PS: This is not a financial advice but just a point of view.