I thought it would be interesting to compare all of Bitcoin's three market cycles; bull runs and bear markets.
I have compared the lengths of all bull runs and bear markets, amount increased and decreased and also looked at resistance spikes during the bear markets.
If you see any mistakes or anything interesting you wish to discuss, fire away.
Thanks for charting this. The durations and proportional price movements for each cycle has been on my mind a lot this year. It's nice to see it visualized.
If bull 3 was 11 months longer and only moved 92x compared to 544x for bull 2, would that indicate the total correction for bull 3 will be less severe? You could probably argue the extra 11 months allowed Bitcoin to mature more into its current price range. Aside from the technical indicators, there's a lot more liquidity in the market right now compared to the bull 2 timeframe, which would suggest less volatility in the future.
fifty2kph
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@QuantomBit, couldn't agree more.
Ilubowsk
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If anything the bear and bull markets are getting longer. Why would bear 3 be shorter than bear 2?
Using the ratio of %decline in lengths of bear market would have this lasting for about 41% of the length of our last bull market and reaching a bottom in mid to late January. Interesting that that's right where the downward wedge we're in is going to get dangerously tight and also is the month before the SEC's last possible date to push back the SolidX CBOE ETF decision.
@StrivingYogi, All kidding aside about a big specific call, I'm very happy that I stumbled upon this chart. Thank you very much for putting in the work on this!
fifty2kph
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@LA18WOLF39, you're very welcome. I made it mostly because I was beyond sick and tired of seeing so many garbage "hope charts" that are basically the current chart with an arrow point up at the end. Retarded.
LA18WOLF39
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@StrivingYogi, Lol that's completely true. Also exactly what suggests we may not have seen the bottom yet since there are a lot of uninformed idiots left in the market to panic on more drops or get bored with prolonged sideways trading and sell their Bitcoin to big accumulators.
If bull 3 was 11 months longer and only moved 92x compared to 544x for bull 2, would that indicate the total correction for bull 3 will be less severe? You could probably argue the extra 11 months allowed Bitcoin to mature more into its current price range. Aside from the technical indicators, there's a lot more liquidity in the market right now compared to the bull 2 timeframe, which would suggest less volatility in the future.