Hi Everyone! Another update for the BTC marginal cost perspective. We are once again close to the marginal costs of BTC mining with an Antminer S15 (~10500 USD/BTC). The key question at this point is how long will the Antminer S15 (or miner with similar efficiency) serve as “fundamental bottom”. A quick-and-dirty analysis reveals that the Antminer S9 had profitable life span of more than 1300 days since its release. While the S9 served as fundamental bottom during the drop in November 2018, it lost is profitability during the crash in March and the subsequent BTC halving in May. The S9 passed the baton to the Antminer S15, which proofed to be a good bottom indicator since then. The profitable life span of the S15 to date is about 665 days. Consequently, we may cautiously assume that the S15 has still some time left before its profitable life span ends due to technological inferiority as it happened with the Antminer S9. However, “profitable life span” is not a fixed number and heavily depends on the technological pressure in form of hash rate growth (new and more efficient miners in the system) in the BTC network. Watch closely! No trading advice!
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FYI: Profitable life span of the Antminer S 7 was ~1000 days. See chart above
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Interesting observation. BTC struggles at the marginal costs of the "old" Antminers S9.