This has been trading nicely and I wanted to post a most likely path to target from here:
** Initial Target 47 by July 15, 2022
If you're playing the options you might be interested in how it will get to 47. There are a few factors at play here from a technical perspective that make the probability of success here very high.
- I don't use bollinger bands often but they have their utility for gauging explosive breakouts from narrow ranges, and for continuation plays (BMBL is the latter)
- The purple downtrend lines represent resistance (solid = has yet to be tested/broken, dashed = recently broken)
- The black rectangular boxes are price consolidation zones around critical levels, the 9 day sma is used here as a timing mechanism, and the RSI is useful for gauging the strength of the momentum
- the horizontal red dashed line is something I call a capitulation zone (defined by a run of consecutive (>=5) red bars, highlighted oval); the orange dotted line is the gap boundaries
Back in March there was a failed break of resistance due to momentum not being strong enough - my interpretation is lack of quality of share ownership at the time AKA weak hands. The technical signal that this was going to drop from there was RSI cross bearish and the 9 day ma falling out of the consolidation zone.
Following this failure to breakout there was a capitulation period where those weak hands were taken out aggressively. In May the price exited the cap zone under new ownership (strong hands) and the risk of selling pressure on next breakout attempt was reduced significantly. It formed a new consolidation zone right around the downtrend resistance and broke out when the 9 day moving average exited the top of the consolidation zone (RSI was also in good form).
Now BMBL can ride support up to test the next downtrend resistance just below the gap. The path I drew in is what I am expecting to see in the price action (i.e. price will be in the next consolidation zone around June 17 and attempt to repeat what happened on the recent breakout). This time it will need to have the volatility going into the consolidation zone to put buying pressure on both the overhead resistance and the gap - otherwise its out of the frying pan and into the fire... BMBL has this based on the bollinger. What I want to see is RSI (purple) and its moving average (yellow) get tangled up above 70 - that is a true sign of strength (don't mistake that for oversold, it actually needs that kind of momentum to truly breakout and fill that gap).
Based on time series model that I adjusted for the expected intermittent consolidation period, my time to initial target of 47 is by July 15.
I am personally in the July 15 35.00 calls, but this ain't financial advice. Also, I say "initial target" because I will have to re-assess based on how it trades around the gap. Long term I think this goes a lot higher.
Best,
George Sand
** Initial Target 47 by July 15, 2022
If you're playing the options you might be interested in how it will get to 47. There are a few factors at play here from a technical perspective that make the probability of success here very high.
- I don't use bollinger bands often but they have their utility for gauging explosive breakouts from narrow ranges, and for continuation plays (BMBL is the latter)
- The purple downtrend lines represent resistance (solid = has yet to be tested/broken, dashed = recently broken)
- The black rectangular boxes are price consolidation zones around critical levels, the 9 day sma is used here as a timing mechanism, and the RSI is useful for gauging the strength of the momentum
- the horizontal red dashed line is something I call a capitulation zone (defined by a run of consecutive (>=5) red bars, highlighted oval); the orange dotted line is the gap boundaries
Back in March there was a failed break of resistance due to momentum not being strong enough - my interpretation is lack of quality of share ownership at the time AKA weak hands. The technical signal that this was going to drop from there was RSI cross bearish and the 9 day ma falling out of the consolidation zone.
Following this failure to breakout there was a capitulation period where those weak hands were taken out aggressively. In May the price exited the cap zone under new ownership (strong hands) and the risk of selling pressure on next breakout attempt was reduced significantly. It formed a new consolidation zone right around the downtrend resistance and broke out when the 9 day moving average exited the top of the consolidation zone (RSI was also in good form).
Now BMBL can ride support up to test the next downtrend resistance just below the gap. The path I drew in is what I am expecting to see in the price action (i.e. price will be in the next consolidation zone around June 17 and attempt to repeat what happened on the recent breakout). This time it will need to have the volatility going into the consolidation zone to put buying pressure on both the overhead resistance and the gap - otherwise its out of the frying pan and into the fire... BMBL has this based on the bollinger. What I want to see is RSI (purple) and its moving average (yellow) get tangled up above 70 - that is a true sign of strength (don't mistake that for oversold, it actually needs that kind of momentum to truly breakout and fill that gap).
Based on time series model that I adjusted for the expected intermittent consolidation period, my time to initial target of 47 is by July 15.
I am personally in the July 15 35.00 calls, but this ain't financial advice. Also, I say "initial target" because I will have to re-assess based on how it trades around the gap. Long term I think this goes a lot higher.
Best,
George Sand
Comment:
Meant to type don't mistake this for *Overbought* (not oversold) in the line pertaining to where I want to see the RSI around the time of next breakout attempt...