Binance 80% CRASH! Black swan crypto event.
- Fundamentals first. Binance Exchange is losing customers; that is a fact that everyone knows. The huge scandal occurred just before Christmas, but it looks like people have already forgotten what happened.
- What is causing Binance Exchange to lose customers? First of all, Binance Exchange itself is banning users all around the world for no reason. My friend got banned before Christmas, 1 day after he opened a short position on BNBUSDTPERP futures. I received a lot of messages from people all around the world saying they received an email with a permanent account suspension. Half of them could withdraw their funds; the other half could not. So if you received this email and you don't know why, Binance Exchange can ban you without any reason, just if they want to.
- There is a conspiracy theory (not verified) that Binance cannot have a monopoly on crypto; bigger players refuse to accept this fact, so they need to reduce it by force.
- I think Binance is a great exchange, the most liquid exchange. But these are facts that everyone can verify.
- BNB coin is currently worth 245 USDT. In my opinion, the price is very expensive at this moment, due to recent scandals and lost customers. 50 - 100 USDT is a fair price to me; I am not willing to pay more for the coin.
- If something is too big, it will destroy itself, so there needs to be competition. Monopoly is not a good thing.
- I want to give you some tips: do not short BNB directly on the Binance exchange if you don't want to get permanently banned like my friend.
- The best option is to store your cryptocurrency in a hardware wallet such as Trezor. And use only a portion of your funds on exchanges to trade spot or futures. Leverage is good because you don't need all your funds and will transfer the risk to the exchange. Together with "stop limit" orders, you can trade very effectively even with a small amount of your funds on exchanges.
- Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said on Twitter that "for most people, for 99% of people today, asking them to hold crypto on their own, they will end up losing it." In other words, if you hold crypto on your own, you will lose your funds, so you should hold all your funds on exchanges. I was shocked when I saw this. He made this statement during the massive bank run on his exchange, giving the impression to others that he was threatening people and convincing them that their funds are safe only in his exchange.
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- Now let's take a look at the technical analysis, which is the main reason why I am bearish on BNB. Both the technical and fundamental analyses are bearish.
- The uptrend from June 13, 2022, to November 7, 2022, is clearly weak. It's an ABC corrective pattern, which is usually followed by a massive crash.
- 80% crash to 48 USDT is, in my opinion, very possible. Everything is going down, including META stocks, TSLA, etc. So if you believe in the future of Binance, 48 USDT is your desired price.
- You have no idea how much BNB people accumulated in previous years or how many leveraged long positions on futures are open. The market usually wants liquidity.
- The price has been moving in the descending parallel channel, and we can retest the channel from the downside.
- As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the whole structure looks very weak. The first impulse wave appears to be an ending diagonal wedge. The bulls are not interested in this coin.
- 48 USDT is a very strong support because it marks the beginning of the massive gap from 2021 as well as the breakout level of the previous structure from 2020.
- I am very bearish on the crypto space, not just the BNB coin, as you may have seen from my previous posts.
- Binance is the most liquid exchange and CZ Binance did a great job bulding it.
- Thank you, and happy New Year!
