Spy vs Bond ratio chart. An uptrend means that bonds are outperforming spy.
Monthly bull divergences, monthly PPO about to cross bullish, Slow Stochastic over 21 for the first time in 2 years. This is a generational opportunity for bonds. Chances are good that the economy tanks mid-year and Powell and the other geniuses at the FED rethink the rate hike strategy, so bonds will continue to rally vs SPY. 60/40 portfolio may become 10/90 by next year.
made good on some swings there but damn I was very impatient and didn't hold as long as I should have
CMFifa
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Is there a specific bond play you're in?
Happy I remembered you used to post here and was able to find you again! was wondering if your UNG/WEAT/CANE plays had hit and you'd retired early :)
the_sunship
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@CMFifa I'm watching the total bond fund because my SO ira has very limited funds to trade and bnd is one of them. I like the chart very much although it could go a little lower.
Peter-A
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@the_sunship, thanks for the chart, so tired of the inflation vs. bond yield thing. Even if bond yields are less than inflation, it still something. Dumping HY here as been just a poor move. The problem is that most people see the price of their bond ETFs falling and sell. Bond ETF are ok, (buying actual bonds should be easier for the general public) If you held an actual bond you wouldn't sell as easy knowing you would get paid par at maturity and there no way you'd be dumping your bonds 20% from par like is happening now. Either way all I'm saying bonds are not meant to be traded in an ETF imo, because as evidenced by the move you illustrate, they obviously cause people to sell, for no fundamental reason, and create volitility, (which might be by design but that's another story
the_sunship
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@Peter-A, thanks so much for your insightful comment. Yes, Bond etf / Spy etf is comparison here, but I think it shows good news for the future bond market.