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sbo sept 2016. Whilst the short position of the commercials is huge as evidenced by CFTC, which would generally be a sign of a major reversal, especially if some shortcovering starts, the daily chart published does not yet show any sign of a reversal.
indeed, (1)the MACD is still in a bearish mood until we see the blue line crosses the red one from the bottom.
(2) we are still below the 21 days MA, which we had tested several times so far, but which still managed to hold.
(3) we have closed below the 9 MA, which short term is bearish
on the other hand we have managed to hold the 38,2 pct fib retracement. (so far). But it appears to me that it may be just a matter of time until it is retested and broken.
On the elliot wave count we are either in a WAVE (B) correction phase of a developing bull mkt or in a wave (2) phase of the downtrend. That would indicate that in any case another leg to the downside should be exected short term.
We would watch for the cross of MACD before engaging on any long position as it would be risky to try to catch 'a falling knife' here until there is a confirmation of a reversal.
Having said all this we should not forget about the record short commercial position, which might indicate the approaching of a major reversal. However, before embarking on the long ride, I would wait for a confirmation at least from the MACD .
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